Oliver Geden, from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs has now published his theses "What Comes after the Two Degree Target? The EU's Climate Policy Should Advocate for Flexible Benchmarks" in English.
His summary reads:
In the climate policy community, there is broad consensus regarding the target of limiting global warming levels to a maximum of two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Still, barring a breakthrough in UN negotiations in the near future and a reversal in current emissions trends, compliance with the two-degree target will be impossible. If this target is abandoned over the medium-term, the EU would have to make a fundamental strategic decision regarding the structure and stringency levels of a new climate goal. The approach, which has thus far proven dominant, of translating a global temperature cap into precise national emission budgets is hardly feasible from a political viewpoint. Looking ahead, the EU should therefore advocate dynamic formulas for setting targets, which are gauged against benchmarks oriented towards "climate neutrality".