tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post1337156345945081082..comments2023-08-07T16:41:49.660+02:00Comments on Die Klimazwiebel: Lomborg versus Schellnhuber & Coeduardohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-39023601501053263562010-08-31T20:41:40.283+02:002010-08-31T20:41:40.283+02:00Today's Guardian reports Lomborg to be suggest...Today's Guardian reports Lomborg to be suggesting a $7 per tonne C-emissions tax in order to raise $250 billion a year to address climate change. $100 billion would be used for RD in carbon-clean technologies. Only a billion dollars for geo-engineering. The rest to go on measures like securing drinking water supplies and building sea defences etc.Leigh Jacksonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-26161643751123917482010-08-24T15:50:16.438+02:002010-08-24T15:50:16.438+02:00Thanks, Anonymous, for your comment. You nail it. ...Thanks, Anonymous, for your comment. You nail it. It is a remake of an old discussion.<br />Concerning the political consequences: It's emission reduction efforts such as carbon cap and trade on Schellnhuber's side, and geo-engeneering on Lomborg's (as far as I know). Both are technological approaches with climate seen as outside and separated from society. I wonder how alternative approaches might look like. For example those which suggest regional appropriate mixes of adaptational and mitigational efforts. Both terms adaptation and mitigation might disappear in the long run, and new ones might come up. Such as building livable and breathable environments -:)Werner Krausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15094636819952421339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-81213006651148952702010-08-23T11:34:44.406+02:002010-08-23T11:34:44.406+02:00This discussion sounds like a remake of the contro...This discussion sounds like a remake of the controversies on the „skeptical environmentalist” some years ago. Both Schellnhuber and Lomborg act as if the climate debate will be decided by scientists or by scientific evidence alone. This form of proxy debate is not the solution but part of the problem itself. It will continue to contribute to the politicization of science by scientists and to threaten the development of effective policies. Roger Pielke did a great in summarizing the paradoxical impacts of these forms of politicization see Roger A. Pielke In "When scientists politicize science: making sense of controversy over The Skeptical Environmentalist" (Environmental Science & Policy 7, 2004). <br />Let us move beyond and discuss the political implications of both positions!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-14813712740812215892010-08-23T09:50:38.775+02:002010-08-23T09:50:38.775+02:00@anonymous yeph #2
Natürlich hat Lomborg das Recht...@anonymous yeph #2<br />Natürlich hat Lomborg das Recht auf eine Meinung, und zumeist sind seine Meinungen auch sehr erfrischend. Wie hier auch. Das Problem ist nur, dass er wie so viele andere auch irgendeine wissenschaftliche Studie aus der Schublade zieht, um sein Argument zu 'verwissenschaftlichen' und mehr Gewicht zu verleihen. Diese Studie kann dies aber gar nicht leisten. Das ist meine Kritik. Sie gilt keinesfalls seiner Meinung, sondern nur diesem alten Taschenspielertrick.Werner Krausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15094636819952421339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-40670286725786342062010-08-23T09:44:27.707+02:002010-08-23T09:44:27.707+02:00@ fin #5
you write:
'Unjusted catastrophic for...@ fin #5<br />you write:<br />'Unjusted catastrophic forecasts aren't good, neither is downplaying the issue.'<br />Exactly. That's why I argue that we need other ways or storylines to talk about anthropogenic climate change.<br /><br />@ingno #6<br /><br />Lomborg's argument is based on the scientific study mentioned in the article. That's my critique. This study is, as Richard Tol wrote above, full of caveats. I am sure this study makes sense in some scientific context, in relation to other scientific studies. Or, to put it in another way, it is a model that relates to other models, but not to reality. Or at least not in a direct way. That's why I think Lomborg misuses this study. He is playing a trick on the public in quoting it. That was my argument: I am tired of this stupid trick which is used permanently from all sides.<br />I absolutely agree with the rest of your argument.Werner Krausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15094636819952421339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-59243533763683065692010-08-23T00:01:24.402+02:002010-08-23T00:01:24.402+02:00Werner Krauss,
I have some difficulties understand...Werner Krauss,<br />I have some difficulties understanding your complain about the article. It is obviously a piece for discussion aimed at the general public. It does not claim to be a piece of science. It does not say that "scientists say", or "science demands". Therefore it is not pseudoscience, nor a misuse of science.<br /><br />It criticize the alamistic claims that we have seen so often. It merely points out that catastrophic scenarios does not have to be so catastrophic, if you think it through.<br /><br />The proper respons would be to write a counter-article for further discussion (saying for example that it IS horrible if 15 miljon people are forced to move). But arguing that Lomborg is pseudo-scientific and therefore disqualified to discuss the matter is a no-go.ingnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16626329862717475394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-39749580074552905492010-08-22T23:08:52.826+02:002010-08-22T23:08:52.826+02:00Oh, only 600 bn dollars. A Year. Well, that is a b...Oh, only 600 bn dollars. A Year. Well, that is a bargain. I am sure the people in Hamburg will be happy to hear that 6 meters aren't an issue. At least they won't have to be mad about this concert hall of theirs any longer.<br /><br />So for Germany that 1% GDP were something over 30 billion dollars a year. Phhhhh, no, I can see why Lomborg puts "catastrophe" in quotation marks. (irony)<br /><br />Fact is that no one knows for sure what exactly happens at 1 degree, 2 degree, 3 degree or 4 degree rise in global temperature.<br />Noone knows what this will mean for humans, noone knows what this will mean for flora and fauna that are used to current temperatures.<br /><br />Everything is just guesses and nothing more than opinions (educated and reasonable ones, though).<br /><br />Noone knows the damages, the injuries, the lifes lost, the number of people becoming homeless, how much food prices will rise, how many species will become extinct.<br /><br />Unjusted catastrophic forecasts aren't good, neither is downplaying the issue. The forecasts of the IPCC were conservative, we will see where the next AR will differ (with more serious and less serious consequences than previously thought).<br /><br />IMHO we need a price on every ton of CO2. And if the costs not to emit it are below this price, we will just not emit it. It really is this easy, isn't it?<br /><br />(Apart from that I think it's really disgusting to say things like "oh, thats only 6 percent of world population".)_Flin_noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-11019888893872436062010-08-21T22:17:28.021+02:002010-08-21T22:17:28.021+02:00thanks, itisi69 -:)thanks, itisi69 -:)Werner Krausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15094636819952421339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-51730503347534418632010-08-21T21:27:24.691+02:002010-08-21T21:27:24.691+02:00http://www.oqueeufiznasferias.com.br/blog/wp-conte...http://www.oqueeufiznasferias.com.br/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/homer-says-the-end-is-near.jpgitisi69https://www.blogger.com/profile/00601918913188476920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-16612943305111352732010-08-21T14:54:31.770+02:002010-08-21T14:54:31.770+02:00Ich finde Lomborgs Argumentation keineswegs so unw...Ich finde Lomborgs Argumentation keineswegs so unwissenschaftlich.<br /><br />Er warnt vor Übertreibungen anhand des absolut unmöglichen Worstcase-szenarios.<br /><br />Auch in den Niederlanden ist das Land durch Trockenlegung weit unter den Meeresspiegel abgesackt, ohne dass eine Massenpanik deswegen ausgelöst wurde. Ganz im Gegenteil wurde dem Meer dadurch Land abgewonnen.<br /><br />Indische Grossbauern behaupten in der Phoenixsendung "Afrikas Schätze" dass Äthiopien das Potential habe zum Brotkorb für die Welt zu werden. 3 Millionen Tonnen Getreide wollen sie jetzt schon auf ihren Ländereien produzieren.<br /><br />Alarmistische Märchen zu widerlegen ist m.E. wissenschaftlicher als sie zu propagieren. <br /><br />Lomborg hat das Szenario nicht erfunden und ist auch kein Klimawissenschaftler. Ähnlich wie bei der "reductio ad absurdum" kann man Katastraphonszenarien dadurch widerlegen, dass man beweist dass nicht einmal ein Superklimagau eine Katastrophe ist<br /><br />Ob die Arbeit im Auftrag der Europäischen Union wissenschaftlich haltbar ist, ist natürlich eine andere Frage.<br /><br />MfG<br />YephAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-40745060654307712452010-08-21T14:08:23.181+02:002010-08-21T14:08:23.181+02:00Here's the ref:
http://www.springerlink.com/co...Here's the ref:<br />http://www.springerlink.com/content/cv0810423u037236/<br /><br />The paper is full of caveats. We take the model outside its range of calibration. We assume that there are no constraints on adaptation -- and refer to three papers in the same issue that discuss such constraints.<br /><br />Nicholls is an engineer, and Vafeidis a geographer, by the way.richardtolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14239680555557587153noreply@blogger.com