tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post5688010780584243161..comments2023-08-07T16:41:49.660+02:00Comments on Die Klimazwiebel: Climate beteduardohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-59758376109335605062013-02-03T10:45:48.527+01:002013-02-03T10:45:48.527+01:00Mike Hulme has some interesting observations about...Mike Hulme has some interesting observations about the different ways of determining what is "normal"<br /><br />http://www.3s.uea.ac.uk/blog/what-climate-or-should-be-normal@ReinerGrundmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12759452975366986236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-7991647762300081882013-02-02T23:42:17.180+01:002013-02-02T23:42:17.180+01:00@28,
I think your examples are not quite realisti...@28,<br /><br />I think your examples are not quite realistic. I would rather compare this situation with a bet on the unemployment in particular country. Nobody counts exactly the number of unemployed people. This number is estimated by different methods, which may yield different results, and they usually do in practice.<br /><br />In this case, a new method was introduced in the mean time, with numbers obtained with the old method still being estimated. <br /><br />Probably, it is our fault for not having foreseen this situation. On the other hand, this is assumed to be a bet between , ehem, gentlemen, who should be able to agree on what has actually happened.eduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-57331740875262388492013-02-02T01:06:17.913+01:002013-02-02T01:06:17.913+01:00am I getting this right... the bet is/was about wh...am I getting this right... the bet is/was about who would have won the champions league if only there had been a goal camera or if only the referee had seen that foul in mid-field or if only the most important player of team X had not been ill that day?<br /><br />Isn´t there a metric not bound to change after the fact, to avoid what Eduardo pointed at in #25?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-39848320056300292472013-02-01T08:46:57.259+01:002013-02-01T08:46:57.259+01:00As for the technical process - the post of James w...As for the technical process - the post of James went into moderation queue, because comments older than 30 days do so. When I saw it, I let it pass, but I did not check if it really was published. Seemingly it was not. If I made an error, I do not know; if so, I apologize.Hans von Storchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08778028673130006646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-38385953794876599252013-02-01T01:21:03.783+01:002013-02-01T01:21:03.783+01:00James,
we also have been thinking about this bet,...James,<br /><br />we also have been thinking about this bet, and I think it is not that clear-cut, at least for me. The data set HadCRUT3 is still being issued - the last update that I am aware of is for December 2012 and has been uploaded on January 18th, 2013.<br /><br />In my understanding of the terms , we would switch to the successor data set once HadCRUT3 ceases to be updated, although I agree that there may be other interpretations. This may be too subtle for non-native English speakers like most of us here. In any case, Gabi has not claimed to have won the bet so far. eduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-71460754348302228872013-02-01T01:15:37.374+01:002013-02-01T01:15:37.374+01:00For some unknown reason that this comment has not ...For some unknown reason that this comment has not been published:<br /><br /><br />James Annan has left a new comment on your post "Climate bet":<br /><br />"the data set HadCRUTv. or successor data set"<br /><br />Well of course HadCRUT4 is out and shows 2010 to beat 1998. So the bet is already a win for Gabi!<br /><br />How many takers were there in the end, and has there been any progress towards a settlement?<br /><br />eduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-38787800144931747052011-01-28T19:16:12.028+01:002011-01-28T19:16:12.028+01:00Our target is HadCRUT3, so Gabi is still on hockOur target is HadCRUT3, so Gabi is still on hockeduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-52265879720736182312011-01-28T11:19:01.178+01:002011-01-28T11:19:01.178+01:00It's a tie!
http://www.raonline.ch/pages/edu/c...It's a tie!<br />http://www.raonline.ch/pages/edu/cli3/glocli_warming1103.html<br /><br />Now what? Does Gabi think she is owed a bottle of wine?P Gosselinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-25238228254268802272010-02-15T18:45:22.460+01:002010-02-15T18:45:22.460+01:00I take the bet. I'm quite impressed about so m...I take the bet. I'm quite impressed about so much objection raisers amongst the contributors. Is this typical german? Indeed, they/we have a special term for this: Bedenkenträger.<br />Let us take it sportive. I'm basing my hope to obtain a bottle of wine on Latif's MDO analysis as well as the very low count of sunspots, perhaps low enough to have not too much bias in the rising interval of this cycle.Robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-66908245433563819242010-02-09T23:35:20.702+01:002010-02-09T23:35:20.702+01:00Confused ... looking at the update - to win or to ...Confused ... looking at the update - to win or to loose about guessing whether there might be an outlier in the Hadley yearly series or not will not prove anything about GW/AGW.<br /><br />Confused ... Gabrielle limiting her losses about not being right to ~100$? I accepted similar risks buying a RAID at ebay yesterday.<br /><br />Confused ... bets aren't changing but background information is. <br /><br />Confused ... Hans saying this is nothing but pure sportsgeist. Hans saying there will probably be a paper about this. So there will probably be a paper about a ~100$ bet by Gabrielle Hegerl about yearly temperature series outliers and the sportsgeist attitude of anonymous commentators at Klimazwiebel?<br /><br />Don't drink and drive.wflammehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18260929727390446009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-45364882166240932442010-02-08T19:29:55.300+01:002010-02-08T19:29:55.300+01:00After having thought long and hard - and having li...After having thought long and hard - and having lived through the coldest winter since I was a little toddler - I have also decided to take the bet. May the best climate astrologist win:-)!Tobias Wnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-13254993959233003972010-02-08T19:00:35.851+01:002010-02-08T19:00:35.851+01:00@Eduardo
The employee in the supermarket told me (...@Eduardo<br />The employee in the supermarket told me (she doesnt know me personally):'... these climate researchers.. all swindlers !', so I paid my sausages ...<br /><br />you paid? Oh man... trying to be honest is a mean trick by you, you, you, climate researcher, you. Actually, that's trick that "skeptics" never try. Last Lie: NASA deliberately crashed its CO2 measurement satellite. Oh je... <br /><br />@P Gosselin<br />just try to download some data (the data that is allowed to be published freely) and some source code of CRUTEM3<br /><br />http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/subsets.html<br /><br />may be you find the fraud... oh je.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02334327604965943036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-43953914214713586842010-02-07T23:23:59.670+01:002010-02-07T23:23:59.670+01:00I have included a disclaimer that does not change ...I have included a disclaimer that does not change the terms of the beteduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-32424456129651917352010-02-07T04:36:12.412+01:002010-02-07T04:36:12.412+01:00to Eduardo:
the employee was not exactly right: cl...to Eduardo:<br />the employee was not exactly right: climate researchers are not swindlers, but they are gamblers.Werner Krausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15094636819952421339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-91816170576012272752010-02-06T15:57:20.907+01:002010-02-06T15:57:20.907+01:00P Gosselin/13 & Bjorn/14 - Exactly, it is just...P Gosselin/13 & Bjorn/14 - Exactly, it is just 10$ - and likely a lot of fun! Danke für den Sportsgeist.Hans von Storchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08778028673130006646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-80320189507000589442010-02-06T15:46:32.317+01:002010-02-06T15:46:32.317+01:00I feel that the 'climate' is pretty tense ...I feel that the 'climate' is pretty tense these days. A bottle of wine can elicit such laden responses. Perhaps the wine has completely evaporated in 2018 under greenhouse warming.<br /><br />I just came from shopping . The employee in the supermarket told me (she doesnt know me personally):'... these climate researchers.. all swindlers !', so I paid my sausages and evaporated as well.eduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-45035415245642470042010-02-06T15:31:10.916+01:002010-02-06T15:31:10.916+01:00Bjorn says:
@Hans and Eduardo,
Gabi's bet is...Bjorn says:<br /><br />@Hans and Eduardo,<br /><br />Gabi's bet ist contradicting your own spirit of research. When some people try to contradict AGW with one cool summer, the reaction always is "Oh, climate is a matter of decades, not of individual years!" Rightfully so! Hence, I would rather bet on a five or ten year average not being warmer than a SINGLE year, say, 2000.<br /><br />One single hot year in Gabi's bet has a probability of around 50%, I would guess. This is quite a sporty bet, but I take it. And I would like to double. Gabi will have a good bottle of St. Emilion in case she wins. In extension to Martin Heiman's idea, I propose a joint party at the loser's cost with good red wine and food, and a possibility to meet and discuss in person. I'll offer to have this party at my home (close to Frankfurt), but any other proposal is welcome. See you in 2018!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-55303646020341050402010-02-06T15:19:18.851+01:002010-02-06T15:19:18.851+01:00Okay, Prof von Storch, I accept the bet. It is, af...Okay, Prof von Storch, I accept the bet. It is, after all, only one 10-dollar bottle of wine. And hopefully HadCrut will have gotten its house in order by then. <br />I will send my addess shortly.P Gosselinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-26159690761309069792010-02-06T13:33:13.352+01:002010-02-06T13:33:13.352+01:00Concerning the Hegerl-bet, I am rather disappointe...Concerning the Hegerl-bet, I am rather disappointed by our categorical nay-sayers. None of them (Martin Heimann is not part of that group) has accepted the bet, meaning that they all consider it not only possible but eben <i>probable</i> that one the next 7 years is warmer than what we have on the thermometer record so far. Some doleful participants try to excuse themselves by claiming that the defined reference, HadCRUTv, would be and will be systematically flawed. The reference to HadCRUTv was put it to make sure that we eventually will not run into technical problems when we want to decide the bet.<br /><br />Some suggest modifications, such as Pedro S. But his version is rife for technical discussions, when he claims: a significant trend in 2001-2014. He does not say which assumptions he wants to apply for the serial dependence of the data (the reference for testing significance of trend is assuming "The Y values are independent.", which is not the case in case of global mean temperature). Why not, Pedro S - just relating the 2001-14 trend to that <i>given critical trend</i> of X deg/year, which you want to assign to the 5% risk. I guess to detect a trend with a risk of less than 5% with serial correlation, as they prevail in such data, would result is a rather big trend. Which would also spell out which trend, namely one at 10% risk level, you would find plausible. Or even better - since 2001-2009 is already known, how big would the trend in the remaining 5 years have to be? In x deg/year? Also, Pedro S, say, which data. <br /><br />The trick is to formulate a bet, which employs quantities, which will only be known in the futures, and to define watertight technical terms for verification. Gabi Hegerl's bet is of that sort.<br /><br />The bottom line is: nobody of our critical friends dares, in particular not those pathetical anonymous participants - why? It is just a little sporty exercise! <br /><br />For the sake of fairness, I should tell you that there will be a press release after a while, telling the public about our bet - including the response of our critical fellows, just in case that none of them is brave enough to accept the bet.Hans von Storchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08778028673130006646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-41181563035657013762010-02-06T00:51:14.179+01:002010-02-06T00:51:14.179+01:00Dear eduardo,
in my bet proposal, I meant the sim...Dear eduardo,<br /><br />in my bet proposal, I meant the simplest linear regression possible: no auto-correlation, etc. Just take the annual global temperature and find the best straight line fit<br />y=ax + b. <br /><br />Then, find confidence intervals for the slope (a), as oulined in, e.g. <br /><br /> http://stattrek.com/AP-Statistics-4/Estimate-Slope.aspx?Tutorial=Stat<br /><br />In my bet, I mean that in at least one of the temperature sets, the null hypothesis: trend (2001-2014)<=0 cannot be rejected at the P<0.05 level.PedroShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02404776246982814786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-26210663304528972562010-02-05T22:55:58.547+01:002010-02-05T22:55:58.547+01:00@ 8
No, the number of participants is limited to ...@ 8<br /><br />No, the number of participants is limited to 10 in both caseseduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-89626595779410624172010-02-05T19:57:40.351+01:002010-02-05T19:57:40.351+01:00No takers!?
UAH MSU has started with +0.735 or som...No takers!?<br />UAH MSU has started with +0.735 or something! I'm giving you a head start.P Gosselinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-1471232517436016432010-02-05T19:18:18.795+01:002010-02-05T19:18:18.795+01:00Seems to me that this is a very cleverly designed ...Seems to me that this is a very cleverly designed bet. <br /><br />Gabi has restricted her payout in the event she loses to 10 bottles, worth $100 at a price per bottle of $10. <br /><br />On the other hand, if she wins, and there are 100 participants, then she wins 100 bottles. <br /><br />Smart!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-48106762078054942662010-02-05T17:37:46.212+01:002010-02-05T17:37:46.212+01:00Reminds me of the time we betted in December wheth...Reminds me of the time we betted in December whether the Alster will freeze or not. The criterion was if the police would officially open it. In the 80's the odds were about 1:5. <br /><br />I take Gabi's bet - under the condition that we drink the wine together. <br /><br />As to UAH MSU, Ch 4 as criterion: That can be fouled, too, e.g. by deteriorating sensor or faulty satellite (or yet the detection of a new processing software error).Martin Heimannnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-90703353878028246842010-02-05T14:35:01.108+01:002010-02-05T14:35:01.108+01:00Dear Pedro,
your bet is not well defined. Statisti...Dear Pedro,<br />your bet is not well defined. Statistically significant under which null-hypothesis (white noise, red-noise, long-memory...)?eduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.com