tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post6676398616608043379..comments2023-08-07T16:41:49.660+02:00Comments on Die Klimazwiebel: What's going on at the IPCC?eduardohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-25158198965687535852012-09-24T15:38:07.312+02:002012-09-24T15:38:07.312+02:00Thank you very much, Eduardo for this extensive co...Thank you very much, Eduardo for this extensive comment. I have to apologize for soliciting your opinion, partially, as "an appeal to authority", as Werner has pointed out. I completely share your assessment. The pivotal point of the shouting match above is whether one is able to read such an "attribution of disaster loss trends to climate change" into IPCC's conclusions or not. But that is up to everybody's individual reading comprehension skills and not worthy further debate.hvwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-770420877766669632012-09-24T14:23:43.538+02:002012-09-24T14:23:43.538+02:00@hvv,
I am not an authority and even less so in th...@hvv,<br />I am not an authority and even less so in the field of disaster losses, and so I may have an informed opinion, probably as good as yours. Furthermore, I have to confess that I am not very much acquainted with the WG II Report - I have already enough with WG I. Disasters are caused by extreme events, and it is very difficult to attribute trends in extremes to climate change. It is even difficult to detect trends in extremes, as the SREX report says. The signal of climate change on losses is further confounded by inflation, economic develpment, etc. Most of the economic damages are caused by landfalling atlantic hurricanes, and here the trend is actualy negative in the last couple of decades. Climate models now predict a decrease in the number of atlantic hurricanes, although an increase in the number of ghe most intense. Loss of personal lives is rather caused by typhons in Asia and maybe droughts in developing countries ( how do you compare economic and life loss? ).<br />So my opinion is that, so far, one cannot attribute any increase in disaster losses to climate change. If the IPCC (reports ? ) states the oposite, then i would say they are exagerating. Probably you have by now interpreted that my confidence in WG II is much lower than in WG Ieduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-76071753862938773452012-09-24T10:10:31.931+02:002012-09-24T10:10:31.931+02:00...and that's why this thread serves as anothe......and that's why this thread serves as another example how debates about (the conduct of) science are used to decide political conflicts.Werner Krausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15094636819952421339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-88556648921833502592012-09-24T09:02:50.518+02:002012-09-24T09:02:50.518+02:00In my reading, hvw still supports a leading role o...In my reading, hvw still supports a leading role of the IPCC in the climate debate. I think this is a totally legitimate point. The discussion about disaster loss has nothing to do with that; except that Reiner and Roger at a certain point in the debate use it to contradict hvw's opinion about the IPCC. As a consequence, the debate about disaster loss turns into a fake debate, in which in the end everybody calls for a superior authority to decide the discussion (netiquette - I kick you out!; reason - I don't understand what you want!, or the call for Hans and Eduardo as authorities, or whatever!). But there is no superior authority or higher power; it's just differing political opinions about the future role of the IPCC.Werner Krausshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15094636819952421339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-13247723242616653332012-09-23T17:49:33.538+02:002012-09-23T17:49:33.538+02:00hvw: "when in a hole, stop digging"
You...hvw: "when in a hole, stop digging"<br /><br />You have granted Roger Pielke's points which are exactly about the misrepresentation of the science. <br />So what is your problem?<br /><br />As you have run out of arguments you resort to ad hominem attacks, using the words "slanderous" and "industry goons". This would normally be a good reason to delete your comment. <br /><br />"You wouldn't know what I wrote to the WG II chairs about this, wouldn't you ?"<br /><br />No I don't, please tell us.@ReinerGrundmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12759452975366986236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-70670499033554751182012-09-22T22:42:42.376+02:002012-09-22T22:42:42.376+02:00Thanks Andreas, I was already concerned about havi...Thanks Andreas, I was already concerned about having dropped into a parallel universe with altered semantic of the English language.<br /><br />Reiner, the Summary for Policypapermakers for you:<br />You take Pielke's post as a cause for accusing the IPCC of misrepresenting the science in order to exaggerate climate change impacts. This slanderous claim is not exactly new, but was hitherto reserved for the zany EIKE, Heartland, WUWT, etc. industry goons.<br /><br />You not only have no new information or thoughts contributing to what Pielke has posted (for example that his quotations are a selection from "many emails with IPCC on this matter", as has precipitated here), nor do you even pretend to be familiar with the current "official narrative" on that subject matter, which you reject nonetheless. So yes, keeping quiet would have been an option.<br /><br /><i>But then you should give us the charitable treatment you give the <br />IPCC, don't you think?</i><br /><br />You wouldn't know what I wrote to the WG II chairs about this, wouldn't you ?<br /><br /><br />I would be very interested about statements from other people than Roger who should have an educated opinion about this:<br /><br />Eduardo, Hans von Storch:<br /><i>There is a strange tendency in the IPCC to exaggerate observed disaster losses due to climate change. The official narrative does not represent the scientific consensus.</i><br /><br />Do you agree? <br /><br />Thanks.<br /><br />hvwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-58907915058753198642012-09-22T17:04:40.306+02:002012-09-22T17:04:40.306+02:00It's not hard to understand hvw.
A few posts ...It's not hard to understand hvw.<br /><br />A few posts above sb posted Christy's latest testimony at US congress. Reiner, Roger, how do you feel about this kind of science communication? Really nothing to worry about?<br /><br />@ hvw<br />+1 <br /><br />AndreasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-48276569500209924162012-09-22T12:44:45.583+02:002012-09-22T12:44:45.583+02:00Reiner-
More like 4 ;-)
I do not understand hvw&...Reiner-<br /><br />More like 4 ;-)<br /><br />I do not understand hvw's complaint either.Roger Pielke, Jr.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-45290240007403767632012-09-22T11:01:02.113+02:002012-09-22T11:01:02.113+02:00hvw
I dont't follow you. You admit that Pielk...hvw<br /><br />I dont't follow you. You admit that Pielke has a point or two but then try to explain it away complaining that people like him (and myself) would be "shouting into the internet". Let's assume you were right and this is a mistake. We should have kept quiet in order not to undermined the good cause. But then you should give us the charitable treatment you give the IPCC, don't you think? At least I do this without professional help, coming back from the dentist or a long bike ride in the rain. Maybe Roger wrote his comments between two cups of stale coffee...@ReinerGrundmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12759452975366986236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-1593608458545694772012-09-22T01:00:59.117+02:002012-09-22T01:00:59.117+02:00@ Reiner Grundmann
thank you for this important p...@ Reiner Grundmann<br /><br />thank you for this important post.<br /><br />WK's question "why do you want it to reach a wider audience?" has found its answer with the buoyant debate.<br /><br />Looks like some people are used to talk behind other people's back as long as there is no risk of being confronted with the concerned themselves.<br /><br />Roger's first-hand intervention must have been a bad surprise for some of the habitués of say so talking. <br /><br />There remains an important absentee: John Christy, unfairly attacked in contribution #8. To let him speak for himself - well worth reading ...<br /><br />http://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/files/Hearings/EP/20120920/HHRG-112-IF03-WState-ChristyJ-20120920.pdf<br /><br />RalphAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-75939538508674174622012-09-21T22:53:02.520+02:002012-09-21T22:53:02.520+02:00"True believers"?
Sinexx:
Thema Klimaw..."True believers"?<br /><br />Sinexx:<br /><br />Thema Klimawandel:<br /><br />"Für 51 Prozent der EU-Bürger ist er die größte globale Bedrohung, in Deutschland sind sogar 66 Prozent dieser Meinung.<br />Dagegen sehen etwas weniger als die Hälfte der Europäer die wirtschaftliche Situation als größtes Problem, in Deutschland sind dies 27 Prozent." <br />(//g-o.de/wissen-aktuell-13981-2011-10-10.html)<br /><br />"Welt der Wunder"-Umfrage:<br /><br />"A recent poll sponsored the German magazine Welt der Wunder resulted in 89% of the respondents saying they don’t believe the US government has told the whole truth about 9/11. The poll was conducted by the Emnid Institute and questioned 1005 German men and women over the age of 14. Both the magazine and the polling organization have called the results “scary and surprising”, according to a press release from Bauer Media."<br />(//911truthnews.com/german-poll-89-question-911/)<br /><br />Endlich fallen auf der Klimazwiebel die Masken. Endlich zeigt der Klimafanatismus wieder einmal seine hässliche Fratze.<br /><br />Abstreiten, abwiegeln, beleidigen, diffamieren und dann diese kaum verhohlene Pseudoüberlegenheit und Pseudowissenschaftlichkeit. <br /><br />Saepius mentietur, qui semel mentitus erit.<br /><br />YephAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-29555507202682495332012-09-21T21:44:06.577+02:002012-09-21T21:44:06.577+02:00Reiner,
let me clarify: The impact of these fault...Reiner,<br /><br />let me clarify: The impact of these faults in AR4 for the overall scientific message of the report was very small. Their importance comes from them indicating problems with the processes and procedures of the IPCC, so it is a good thing to point them out. The partially childish-stupid answer to this doesn't only show lack of respect but also points to another important (and this time current) problem. Yet nobody seems to bring it up.<br /><br />The problem is that IPCC's procedures for handling such "out of protocol requests", or how you want to call it, seems non-existing or horribly broken. There is a need for professionalization. Such a request may reach a professor with 2 proposals due tomorrow, the PhD badly stuck, the coffee empty and the faculty meeting started 2 mins ago. Given the attention with which her answer will be scrutinized, this is not acceptable. IPCC could for example spend more resources on streamlining public communication. (<i>You may want to believe that all that matters are the official texts.</i> Ha! exactly that would be good advice to the IPCC here, and a good headline for a blog article, no?)<br /><br />Instead you shout a completely unrelated "IPCC exaggerates disaster losses" into the internets. All in the service of restoring "trust in the science", of course. Having drawn your attention to the message of SREX, you probably also regard this as an "exception" to the rule? In case AR5 will have the same cautious message again, will you write "Two IPCC reports in a row show that IPCC doesn't exaggerate climate disasters!"? No. you'll use some mistake somewhere and spin it into the same old direction. <br /><br />So yes, Pielke has a point or two, but how this is spun is definitively hostile and misleading. Exactly like politicians at election time. I had expected this from the more rustic "skeptics"-faction, not from you both.hvwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-42897538541962474022012-09-21T19:45:12.141+02:002012-09-21T19:45:12.141+02:00hvw
As you are concerned about a "wanting-to...hvw<br /><br />As you are concerned about a "wanting-to-score-points attitude" and "contributing anything useful" let me say that I find your cavalier attitude towards the IPCC reaction not useful at all. By useful I mean serving your own cause of (presumably) getting the science right and contributing to good climate policy.<br /><br />You are essentially saying "Pielke has a point (or two) but this does not matter. Also, the ridiculous reply by the IPCC does not matter because it is not on the same level as some authoritative texts (AR4, SREX). Don't you realize that this undermines trust in the science and in the people who claim they understand it (such as you, the IPCC...).<br /><br />You may want to believe that all that matters are the official texts. But texts without audience, readers, and interpretation do not exist.@ReinerGrundmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12759452975366986236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-24613016682481305152012-09-21T16:50:39.367+02:002012-09-21T16:50:39.367+02:00hvw-
If you think that this issue is restricted o...hvw-<br /><br />If you think that this issue is restricted only to a handful of missed references and a falsified graph in a single report, then you have not done your homework. <br /><br />As you note, the rushing to strong conclusions on very partial information is endemic in this area. Lesson: Do your homework;-)<br /><br />Thanks to you as well, all best!Roger Pielke, Jr.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-27925003510125532162012-09-21T16:42:22.224+02:002012-09-21T16:42:22.224+02:00Roger,
SREX got things right. It is, unfortunatel...Roger,<br /><br /><i>SREX got things right. It is, unfortunately, an exception over a very long time (TAR, AR4, Pachauri, Field to name just a few).</i><br /><br />Now even assuming that in the past IPPC statements about this particular question were biased (I still do not see this in AR4), but the latest report, a special report devoted exclusively to the subtopic at hand "got it right".<br /><br />How alarmist, misleading and unfair is it, to report as "some disturbing news" "the IPCC's tendency to exaggerate disaster losses" when in fact this is about a handful of missed references and an "illegally inserted" into the Supplementary Material and totally meaningless figure in a 2007 report?<br /><br />The longer I watch this whole debate, the more originally sane appearing people seem to get into a competitive "wanting-to-score-points" attitude and give up on contributing anything useful. This is not a symmetric phenomenon; childish game playing happens predominantly on the "skeptic side". I am disappointed.<br /><br />Thanks for talking<br />-EOThvwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-60885279938024018602012-09-21T14:07:01.149+02:002012-09-21T14:07:01.149+02:00hvw-
Thanks ...
1. SREX got things right. It is...hvw-<br /><br />Thanks ... <br /><br />1. SREX got things right. It is, unfortunately, an exception over a very long time (TAR, AR4, Pachauri, Field to name just a few).<br /><br />2. I have many emails with IPCC on this matter.<br /><br />3. and 4. Lucky me, but unlucky for Field, he could have used some help;-)<br /><br />ThanksRoger Pielke, Jr.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-3403612846496989622012-09-21T13:38:19.490+02:002012-09-21T13:38:19.490+02:00Roger,
1. Thanks for the clear answer. I have ve...Roger,<br /> <br />1. Thanks for the clear answer. I have very strong objections though. How someone is able to interpret<br /><i>Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate change has not been excluded (high agreement, medium evidence).</i> (IPCC-SREX (2012), p 234)<br />as an exaggeration of climate related disaster losses is beyond me.<br /><br />2. If I wanted to get to the bottom of this, I would be interested in the mail headers, salutation, signature, just the whole mail. But I don't. Maybe others do. Publishing it could strengthen the case you try to make in #16.2.<br /><br />3. and 4. So you were pretty lucky then, that I did not participate in this debate and tore your post to shreds ;).hvwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-42272556875945360602012-09-21T12:57:46.020+02:002012-09-21T12:57:46.020+02:00hvw-
Thanks ...
1. I have no objections to Reine...hvw-<br /><br />Thanks ...<br /><br />1. I have no objections to Reiner's characterization<br /><br />2. What would you like to know?<br /><br />3. and 4. The various issues with Field's testimony have been debated at length ... the very few objections to my post hinge upon issues like the placement of a comma and the like ;-)<br /><br />All best!Roger Pielke, Jr.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-5106508199480862782012-09-21T12:13:00.001+02:002012-09-21T12:13:00.001+02:00Roger,
1. In the blog entry under which we are wr...Roger,<br /><br />1. In the blog entry under which we are writing, Reiner claims that "there is a strange tendency in the IPCC to exaggerate observed disaster losses due to climate change". (Note the present tense.) That is his interpretation of your blog entry. Do you agree with this interpretation?<br /><br />2. Ok, I really can't say who "is responsible" for this mail (that I never saw) and have to rely on some exegesis. Will you show us the mails? <br /><br />3. and 4. Yes, lets agree to disagree, as also your interpretation of Field's testimony is not without alternative, to put it blandly. The necessity to carefully distinguish related yet different variables, as mentioned above, also applies here.<br />hvwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-35820752909471344502012-09-21T10:58:34.703+02:002012-09-21T10:58:34.703+02:00hvw-
1. "Do you disagree that in these event...hvw-<br /><br />1. "Do you disagree that in these events there is no evidence for the claim that 'the IPCC exaggerates observed disaster losses due to climate change'?"<br /><br />Sorry, you lost me.<br /><br />2. "There is no way that this came not from a single volunteer"<br /><br />I'm not interested in wild speculation. The reply came under the name of 2 high ranking IPCC individuals, other unnamed CLAs, via the IPCC Bureau and Secretariat and overseen by the WGII Chair. These are the people responsible for the content.<br /><br />3. "I don't see any fundamental differences between AR4 and SREX on this topic"<br /><br />Let us to agree to disagree. This is so obvious as to be not worth debating.<br /><br />4. Can you point me to where Field or Barros do that?<br /><br />Field in recent Congressional testimony:<br /><br />http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.dk/2012/08/ipcc-lead-author-misleads-us-congress.html<br /><br />ThanksRoger Pielke, Jr.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-40284195574812720312012-09-21T10:48:13.811+02:002012-09-21T10:48:13.811+02:00Roger,
sorry, my "do you disagree?" was...Roger,<br /><br />sorry, my "do you disagree?" was poorly referenced. I meant, "Do you disagree that in these events there is no evidence for the claim that 'the IPCC exaggerates observed disaster losses due to climate change'?" I can not find evidence for such a devastating claim in the faults of AR4. More importantly, this statement implies that the IPCC is doing that now, and will in the future, as part of its agenda. I find this an outrageous claim.<br /><br /><i>The IPCC failures in this case cannot be attributed to "one overworked volunteer" -- the failures are systemic, over time and involve many people including top leadership.</i><br /><br />This claim certainly is not supported by the communication we are talking about here. Just look at the extremely stupid answer in #1: There is no way that this came not from a single volunteer, writing without consulting anybody else, on her own authority, and lacking sensitivity as to the PR effect when this gets published, and also not realizing that you will publish that for sure.<br /><br /><i>The graph and related claims set back this area for about 5 years</i><br /><br />I don't see any fundamental differences between AR4 and SREX on this topic. But I can understand how easy one might differ here. In detail, it would be necessary to take great care what we are talking about: normalized loss trends, loss trends, extreme events - types, magnitudes, frequencies, trends from the historical record, predicted trends, ....<br /><br /><i>IPCC WGII chair subsequently reject the SREX conclusions.</i><br /><br />Whoa, I did not notice. Can you point me to where Field or Barros do that?<br /><br />hvwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-39367906955971769802012-09-21T08:38:47.839+02:002012-09-21T08:38:47.839+02:00hvw-
Thanks ... you ask "Do you disagree?&qu...hvw-<br /><br />Thanks ... you ask "Do you disagree?"<br /><br />I think so, based on my understanding of your question.<br /><br />1. The IPCC failures in this case cannot be attributed to "one overworked volunteer" -- the failures are systemic, over time and involve many people including top leadership. If the integrity of the institution matters, then such a failure should be of concern -- this is not the 2035 glacier error, but far worse.<br /><br />2. Does it matter to the AR4? Absolutely. The graph and related claims set back this area for about 5 years, corrected finally when the SREX redid the effort, only to see the IPCC WGII chair subsequently reject the SREX conclusions.<br /><br />Now it is fair to ask if any of that matters, and it is often claimed that bad science "does not matter" (see eg hockey stick debate). For the broader climate debate, perhaps it does not. But if you care about the integrity and legitimate authority of scientific institutions, I'd say it matters a fair bit.<br /><br />All best!Roger Pielke, Jr.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-26310646480121325982012-09-20T23:06:24.252+02:002012-09-20T23:06:24.252+02:00Roger,
thanks for this answer.
I now understand ...Roger,<br /><br />thanks for this answer.<br /><br />I now understand better where you are coming from, judging #3 so harshly. What I wanted to say is that your critique centers around the <b>process</b>, <b>rules</b> and <b>protocol</b> that were violated here (I assume your depiction of events is correct, I can't check this now). And in a way you are right, in that this is way more grave than just a "honest mistake". And it is quite disappointing, that some ex - coordinating lead author doesn't reply honestly and seriously. I, on the other, hand focused on the figure itself, which makes no sense, regardless how it got there, but this can go through as "honest slipshot job".<br /><br />What I do not like, very much so, is a certain vibe of accusation that is in your blog's article and that is exactly what Reiner "bandpass" Grundmann here extracts and amplifies. This, in my eyes, puts you both quite close to my local "Global warming caused this thunderstorm, which killed a child" - <i>Journaille</i>.<br /><br />The minor: That "The IPCC" is answering thus carelessly, and not just one, most likely overworked volunteer, who tries to avoid more work which doesn't get her anywhere. There was no plenary session to discuss your mail. This is a scientific body, which you cannot measure to the same standard as a company with streamlined PR.<br /><br />The major: That there is "tendency in the IPCC to exaggerate observed disaster losses due to climate change" (RG) and that "[IPCC] cherry picked a date to make a suggestive claim" (you).<br /><br />This is completely without evidence. This is baseless alarmism. Just imagine an AR4 where all your reasons for complaints did not happen. No Figure SM 1.1. in the supporting material, acknowledgement of you work that includes Katrina, ...<br />Would there be a detectable difference to the actual AR4 in terms of the impression conveyed about the state of knowledge about a potential causal relationship between global warming and weather related losses? I think not. The message is clear and has not changed (also not in SREX): We just do not know!<br />Do you disagree?hvwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-69251045303309992072012-09-20T21:26:34.224+02:002012-09-20T21:26:34.224+02:00Andreas-
There is no need to base your judgment ...Andreas- <br /><br />There is no need to base your judgment on my say so ... all of the information is available, so check it out yourself, use your own judgment ... or not.<br /><br />Thanks!Roger Pielke, Jr.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-50701346965698582382012-09-20T21:19:53.535+02:002012-09-20T21:19:53.535+02:00Roger,
sorry, but that was too short. All I said ...Roger,<br /><br />sorry, but that was too short. All I said was, that you too often cried <em>"Wolf!!</em>, but there were no wolves at all. Now I hear you crying again, but I don't listen to you.<br /><br />What about AR5? Did you think about becoming an expert reviewer to improve the AR5? In my opinion it's not so exciting to complain about the past.<br /><br />AndreasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com