tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post8863610027653732617..comments2023-08-07T16:41:49.660+02:00Comments on Die Klimazwiebel: Pumping sea-level upeduardohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-10010631091515677032012-06-05T13:45:52.272+02:002012-06-05T13:45:52.272+02:00Ghost,
natürlich darf Rahmstorf seine Meinung dar...Ghost,<br /><br />natürlich darf Rahmstorf seine Meinung darüber schreiben und auch seine Methoden verteidigen, gar keine Frage. Ich wollte aber zum Ausdruck bringen, dass diese Methoden nicht den 'Konsensus' darstellen.<br /><br />In der Vergangenheit wurde eben der wissenschaftlichen Konsensus dafür missbraucht, die wissenschatliche Diskussion abzuwürgen.<br /><br />Es ist nun interessant zu sehen, wie plötzlich der Konsensus seine Autorität verliert- wenn es nicht passteduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-64563262067742295372012-06-04T09:53:20.486+02:002012-06-04T09:53:20.486+02:00Es ist eben Prof. Rahmstorfs Meinung und er vertei...Es ist eben Prof. Rahmstorfs Meinung und er verteidigt seine Arbeit. Hm, im Moment sieht es nicht so aus, als ob die statistischen (was bedeutet semi-empirisch eigentlich?) Modelle richtig sind. Zum Glück. Ich finde prozessorientierte Modelle + Beobachtungen eigentlich sehr überzeugend. <br /><br />Aber doch ist es eben eine Meinung, keine Beleidigung, keine Unterstellung, keine Lüge, kein Vergleich von Grünen mit Nazis oder so. Und deswegen kann man es Beitrag einfach zitieren, ohne eigene Meinung. Ich hoffe, sie merken den Unterschied.<br /><br />North Carolina macht es aber einfacher für die wissenschaftliche Diskussion: http://www.nccoast.org/uploads/documents/CRO/2012-5/SLR-bill.pdf<br /><br />Da wird einfach per Gesetz bestimmt, was man annehmen soll:<br /><br />These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise.<br /><br />;)ghostnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-90138159011140874912012-06-02T16:56:37.841+02:002012-06-02T16:56:37.841+02:00Paul S., thanks very much; that's very helpful...Paul S., thanks very much; that's very helpful. Well, I guess the issue's important given the tone of Prof. Rahmstorf's <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/06/what-makes-sea-level-rise/" rel="nofollow">RealClimate</a> post.Alex Harveyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10591760549272940968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-19987895091652226462012-05-31T18:49:06.571+02:002012-05-31T18:49:06.571+02:00man sollte nicht unbedingt alle Kommentare, die in...man sollte nicht unbedingt alle Kommentare, die in blogs geschrieben werden, kritiklos akzeptieren, auch die von der Klimazwiebel nicht.<br /><br />Wenn es sich in den nächsten Drafts des IPCCs Berichts nicht viel ändert, werden die IPCC-Schätzungen zu globalem Meeresspiegel weit weg von denen der semi-empirischen Methoden liegen.eduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-25862705246577129022012-05-31T13:15:21.994+02:002012-05-31T13:15:21.994+02:00Stefan Rahmstorf hat auch einen Artikel darüber:
...Stefan Rahmstorf hat auch einen Artikel darüber:<br /><br />http://www.scilogs.de/wblogs/blog/klimalounge/klimadaten/2012-05-31/was-laesst-den-meeresspiegel-steigen<br /><br />Sein Fazit:<br />Insgesamt würden die neuen Zahlen also die prozessbasierten Projektionen erhöhen und die semi-empirischen absenken, was die beiden Methoden näher zusammen brächte und insofern aus meiner Sicht erfreulich wäre. Allein mir fehlt der Glaube.<br /><br />Eigentlich hat Prof. Rahmstorf schon immer geschrieben, dass prozess- und statistikorientierte Methoden sich angleichen werden.ghostnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-82362247257069311042012-05-30T19:14:41.017+02:002012-05-30T19:14:41.017+02:00Alex,
TWC stands for 'Terrestrial Water Stora...Alex,<br /><br />TWC stands for 'Terrestrial Water Storage'.<br /><br /><a href="http://ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch5s5-5-5-3.html" rel="nofollow">AR4</a> simply repeats the TAR finding for this value, in terms of bottom-up estimates: 'which estimated the rather wide ranges of –1.1 to +0.4 mm yr–1 for 1910 to 1990 and –1.9 to +1.0 mm yr–1 for 1990'<br /><br />Pay attention to the colours. The other studies show individual estimates for either groundwater depletion or reservoir storage. These can be compared with Pokhrel et al.'s estimates for the respective individual contributions. The values from AR4 are included presumably to compare the residual (i.e. unexplained) sea level rise with their own Net SLC from TWS change.Paul Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15275182941476518621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-73745726370472032042012-05-29T07:24:16.507+02:002012-05-29T07:24:16.507+02:00Dear Eduardo,
I note you have written,
The high ...Dear Eduardo,<br /><br />I note you have written,<br /><br /><i>The high contribution to sea-level rise by GWD indicated in this study does not imply that the contribution of ocean expansion or glacier melting have to be readjusted.</i><br /><br />The paper is behind a pay-wall and I have some difficulty interpreting the figure. It shows in black the 'Net SLC owing to TWS change'. I assume 'TWS' is total water storage. There is no 'Net SLC owing to TWS change' given for either the AR4 or 'other studies', however, leading in my mind to an apples-with-oranges comparison. Is this detail buried in the paper somewhere? Exactly how much of a departure from previous studies is this new one?Alex Harveyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10591760549272940968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-18914044322464587972012-05-27T14:08:42.278+02:002012-05-27T14:08:42.278+02:00@1
The esimation of Gorund Water Depletation are ...@1<br /><br />The esimation of Gorund Water Depletation are based on a model of water requirements:<br /><br />..<br /><br />Unsustainable groundwater use is estimated based on the total water demand (domestic, industrial and agricultural) and the availability of water from near-surface sources. This approach proposed by previous studies29,30 estimates<br />the unsustainable groundwater use implicitly, as the model does not explicitly account for groundwater dynamics. Water is withdrawn unlimitedly when needed because there are no global data sets on the availability of groundwater<br />sources. Nevertheless, it has been shown that the model-estimated global and country-scale groundwater depletion is within the range of the reported statistics for circa 2000 (ref. 17).<br /><br />..<br /><br />It is thus not based on observations of relative sea-level change i.e. with respect to the a reference anchored in earth crust, like a tide gauge. I cannot tell if this model is realistic, as I have no expertise in this fieldeduardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17725131974182980651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8216971263350849959.post-208470041177332292012-05-27T05:36:36.967+02:002012-05-27T05:36:36.967+02:00While I can not fathom how this research can even ...While I can not fathom how this research can even begin (in the concept of adjustments for iso-static rebound but not considering the the fissure genesis with both subduction and induction zones and many other plate tectonic movements).<br /><br />Anyhow, I very much enjoy papers that are published on the Argo system by Josh Willis.<br /><br />Here are some conversations with Pielke Sr.:<br />http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/09/22/e-mail-exchange-with-joshua-willis-on-the-diagnosis-of-global-warming-from-ocean-heat-content-changes/<br /><br />Even though he has been tacked on with J. Hansen papers of the past, he is very balanced and I concider him an honest broker.<br /><br />Here is a PNAS from Josh on GWD:<br />http://www.pnas.org/content/107/42/17916.shortintrepid_wandersnoreply@blogger.com