Hans von Storch and Eduardo Zorita: on our paper on stagnation and trends

We have recently uploaded to academia.edu a manuscript, coauthored by us two and two others, with the title 'Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming', in which we compare the magnitude trends in the global mean temperature recently observed - trends in the last 10 years and the trends in the last 15 years (1998-20012) - with the ensemble of trends simulated by climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Projects CMIP3 and CMIP5. Recent trends as low or lower as those observed in the HadCRUT4 data set, of merely 0.4 C/century, are reproduced by at most 2% of the scenario simulations. Also two other analyses of the development of global mean temperature have been considered, with a higher trend of 0.8 C/century by GISS and 0.4 C/century by NCDC -  these other trends show up in the ensemble of scenario simulation at most in 4.7% of all cases and 0.6% of all cases. Obviously, there is some uncertainty in the trends, but our overall conclusion that the present trends are at the margin of the distribution generated by available A1B and RCP4.5 scenarios is robust against this uncertainty.

Science for a good cause?

Imagine the following scenario. An atmospheric scientist makes a discovery that seems to challenge a particular model of sea level increase due to global warming. She expects her discovery will be refined through further research, and that, in the end, it will not refute the mainstream view. In the meantime, she wants to avoid giving ammunition to climate skeptics, so she postpones publication. But an ambitious postdoc surreptitiously informs the media about the discovery. The media accuse the scientist of a cover-up and report that key evidence for anthropogenic climate change has been refuted.

Ameling in der FAZ: Freispruch für CO2

Am 7 August erschien als „Standpunkt“-Beitrag ein Aufsatz eines Herrn Dieter Ameling „Freispruch für CO2 – Revision der Energiewende“, der mit den Zeilen

„Der renommierte Meteorologe Hans von Storch hat jüngst im "Spiegel" sehr klar bekannt, dass eine Erderwärmung seit 15 Jahren nicht mehr stattfindet. Die Mittelwerte der Daten des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) zeigen sogar einen Rückgang der Temperaturen, und das, obwohl die Kohlendioxidwerte (CO2) weiterhin von Jahr zu Jahr gleichmäßig steigen.
Ein unmittelbarer Zusammenhang zwischen steigenden C02-Gehalten der Luft und dem dadurch bedingten Temperaturanstieg existiert also nicht. Von Storch vermutet, dass in den Klimamodellen der Klimaforscher ein fundamentaler Fehler steckt und die Vorhersagen korrigiert werden müssen. 
Es ist höchste Zeit für einen Freispruch des CO2 mit allen sich daraus ergebenden Konsequenzen: …“

begann. Im Faksimile der volle Artikel.

Are climate sceptics the better climate scientists?

Warren Pearce, a young researcher and colleague at Nottingham University has published a smashing piece on the Guardian blog on Science and the Green Movement. It has attracted more than 700 comments in a few days - perhaps no big surprise given the main topic. It is inevitable that people on both sides of the fence feel strongly about the issue.