Dennis Bray's surveys of climate scientists

Dennis Bray

It seems that there is renewed interest in the surveys of Dennis Bray (and myself as junior partner) of climate scientists. Four of such surveys have been done. Results of three of these are published; a fourth one, run in early 2013, is presently evaluated. We give here the references to reports and analyses.



The relevant publications are - on the two first surveys in 1996 

Bray, D. and H. von Storch, 2007: Climate Scientists’ Perceptions of Climate Change Science. GKSS Report 11/2007

Abstract: This report presents the findings of two surveys of climate scientists’ perceptions of the global warming issue. The first survey was conducted in 1996 and the second survey in 2003. A brief text section demonstrates some of the significant findings. The surveys investigate the means by which scientific conclusions are reached and the climate scientists interpretations of what these conclusions might mean. The complete responses to the surveys are presented in Appendix A: Tables and Appendix B: Figures. Each table and figure is presented in a manner to indicate statistically significant change in scientists perspectives over the period of the two surveys.

on the 2008 survey:

Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2010: CliSci2008: A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate Change. GKSS Report 2010/9

Abstract: This report presents the findings of a surveys of climate scientists' perceptions of the global warming issue. The survey was conducted in 2008. The surveys investigate the means by which scientific conclusions are reached and the climate scientists interpretations of what these conclusions might mean.

and on the level of consensus

Bray, D., 2010: The Scientific Consensus of Climate Change Revisited,  Environmental Science & Policy 13 (2010) 340-350

Abstract: This paper first reviews previous work undertaken to assess the level of scientific consensus concerning climate change, concluding that studies of scientific consensus concerning climate change have tended to measure different things. Three dimensionsof consensus are determined: manifestation, attribution and legitimation. Consensus concerning these dimensions are explored in ore detail using a time series of data from surveys of climate scientists. In most cases, little difference is discerned between those who have participated in the IPCC process and those who have not. Consensus however, in both groups does not equal unanimity. Results also suggest rather than a single group proclaiming the IPCC does not represent consensus, there are now two groups, one claiming the IPCC makes over estimations (a group previously labeled skeptics, deniers, etc.) and a relatively new formation of a group (many of whom have participated in the IPCC process) proclaiming the IPCC tends to underestimate some climate related phenomena.

An important summary is provided by this diagram, which shows the percentage of agreement among climate scientists that a warming would occur (manifestation), and that this warming is related to GHG emissions (attribution).

The study, initiated in the mid 1990s, was begun with a seris of in-depth interviews with climate scientists; two of these interviews were published as

Bray, D. and H. von Storch 1996: Inside science - a preliminary investigation of the case of global warming.
MPI report 195

and the results of the first survey was discussed in the framework of "postnormal" science (which was actually the first time of looking at climate science form this point of view)

Bray, D. and H. von Storch, 1999: Climate Science. An empirical example of postnormal science.Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 80: 439-456

Specific aspects were examined in these publications -
von Storch, H. and D. Bray, 1999: Perspectives of climate scientists on global climate change. - Conference Proceedings. Climate Change Policy in Germany and the United States, Berlin, June 15-18, 1997. Publications of the GAAC, Volume 7, ISSN 0948-4809, 33-48
Bray, D. and H. von Storch, 1999: Climate Science and the transfer of knowledge to public and political realms. In: H. von Storch and G. Flöser: Anthropogenic Climate Change, Springer Verlag, ISBN 3-540-65033-4, 287-328
(Links will be provided later)