After Paris: Embedded environmentalism?

The agreement reached in Paris will only be meaningful if countries make progress on their pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Lack of progress is often attributed to the influence of climate skepticism, and some observers expect a new wave of skeptical voices in the coming years. Yesterday Michael Oppenheimer was quoted in the Washington Post, saying

“Denialism draws its oxygen from larger political agendas and Paris won’t put an end to those... There will still be plenty of opposition to regulating greenhouse gas emissions, to regulation in general, and to any sort of international cooperation.”

What Klimazwiebelists have to say on the COP21 result

All have an opinion on the result of COP21, even if these opinions may be based on rather different perceptions of the results. But we thought that it could be interesting if we Kimazwieblists would present some individual views. Four of us, Reiner Grundmann, Werner Krauss, Hans von Storch and Eduardo Zorita, have taken on the challenge - here are their views (in alphabetical order):

While the dust settles

Embed from Getty Images

Compared to Copenhagen, the new deal reached today in Paris is a surprising success. It is a success in that parties to the conference have agreed on a document that represents a compromise on several issues that have proved contentious among different countries, and among different social groups within each nation.

Der Wissenschafts-Blog des Jahres wird gewählt.

Die Firma "Science&Media; Büro für Wissenschafts- und Technikkommunikation" teilt mit:

Der Wissenschafts-Blog des Jahres wird gewählt.

Auch "Die Klimazwiebel" ist wieder unter den Kandidaten.

                             

Wie im letzten Jahr haben wir die Blogs, die sich mit Wissenschaft beschäftigen und die Blogs, die Wissenschaftskritik zum Thema haben, in zwei getrennten Abstimmungen zur Wahl gestellt: zum einen zum „Wissenschafts-Blog des Jahres 2015“, zum anderen zum „Blogteufelchen der Wissenschaftskritik“.

Ich würde mich freuen, wenn Sie sich an der Wahl beteiligen.

Falls Sie in Ihrem Blog auf die Wahl hinweisen wollen, benutzen Sie bitte diesen Link: http://wp.me/1XAlm

A sign of things to come?

View image | gettyimages.com

Last week the North of the UK was hit by strong rain (storm ‘Desmond’) which led to massive flooding of various towns and villages, especially in Cumbria. As is routine in such cases, the question is asked if this has been caused by climate change. The Met office issued this statement by Professor Dame Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist:

“It’s too early to say definitively whether climate change has made a contribution to the exceptional rainfall. We anticipated a wet, stormy start to winter in our three-month outlooks, associated with the strong El Niño and other factors.
“However, just as with the stormy winter of two years ago, all the evidence from fundamental physics, and our understanding of our weather systems, suggests there may be a link between climate change and record-breaking winter rainfall. Last month, we published a paper showing that for the same weather pattern, an extended period of extreme UK winter rainfall is now seven times more likely than in a world without human emissions of greenhouse gases.”

Discussing COP21, Paris, beginning 29 November 2015

27. November 2015 - The Media Watch Blog, of Professor Michael Brüggemann and coworkers, will start operations on 29 November 2015.

They explain: "In our Media Watch Blog we present an analytical view of the media coverage and public debates concerned with the UN-Climate Change Conference in Paris(November 30th – December 11th 2015) through the lens of academic observers from social and climate sciences. We focus on the coverage of the conference in leading media outlets in 40 countries around the globe but we will also provide some first-hand observations from students and researchers who participate in the conference. The blog is hosted by the team of Prof. Brüggemann at the University of Hamburg, but its authors are climate researchers and social scientists from a range of different backgrounds united by an interest in the interdisciplinary study of climate change."

Weather - talking, embedding in literature - in the Anglosaxon world.

Nico Stehr pointed me to this article in the New Yorker

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/writers-in-the-storm.

The piece is worth a read, for the cultural history of the role of weather and climate, but also as a demonstration of the impressive self-confidence of some in the anglo-saxon speaking world. We need to lead.

Paris: binding or non-binding?

In recent days some confusion (see here and here) seems to have arisen about the nature of the proposed agreement to be reached in Paris (a good summary of arguments can be found over at Carbonbrief). One feature is that it will be determined by national pledges for future GHG reductions, but that it should be binding in some ways, too. When it comes to find words to describe the nature of the agreement, 'treaty' seems to be problematic, as it entails different meanings in different places. US foreign secretary Kerry said that the Paris summit will not lead to a treaty (which is binding to the signatories). 

Werner Krauß und Hans von Storch in der Stuttgarter Zeitung

Die Stuttgarter Zeitung "hat zehn Klimaforscher aus unterschiedlichen Fächern gefragt, was sie sich von Paris erhoffen". Unter diesen zehn waren auch die beiden Klimazwiebel-Autoren Werner Krauss und Hans von Storch. Ihre abgedruckten Antworten sind stark verkürzt. Zum einen ist das dem begrenzten Umfang geschuldet, zum anderen musste der Journalist auch der Sache nach verdichten, weil es ja nicht um die Einzelaussagen ging sondern darum, einen Gesamteindruck des Denkens unter Klimaforschern darzustellen.

Wenn wir hier die ausführlichen Antworten der beiden Klimazwiebelisten bringen, dann soll dies nicht als Klage der Verkürzung verstanden werden sondern als ein Angebot an die Leser der Klimazwiebel, für die es vielleicht interessant ist, das ganze Argument bzw. Perspektive zu lesen.

Advice needed: Discussion about past and future IPCC

On 16 November I have been invited to participate at a panel discussion about the past and future IPCC. The panelists have been asked for an initial statement. So far I am thinking of concluding my statement with this:

"• IPCC is an indispensable effort.

 • IPCC processes need to be improved.
- Mechanism to deal with claims about errors and conflicts of interest.
- Consideration that “payment” may take the form of societal or professional recognition, not only in terms of money
- Documentation and highlighting of contested areas and areas of significant lack of scientific analysis
- Mechanisms to prevent formation of networks of lead authors.
- Factoring into the assessment that scientifically constructed knowledge may be conditioned by culturally constructed (value-based) knowledge claims.

 • Decentralized “regionalization” efforts (aka BACC etc.) where suitable."

 I wonder if some Klimazwiebel-readers may have some constructive comments.