Sunday, June 2, 2013
Everything you wanted to know about climate and did not dare to ask
This title is a bit provocative, but the Deutsche Welle has put up a nice page with short answers to climate questions. You do not need to agree with each of them, but the page does reflect a certain range of views, mine included. Most video-clips are in English.
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12 comments:
I find the answers given in the videos as very poor. In the first, you claim you can't explain the present warming without CO2 effect, but how do you explain the lack of continued warming with increasing CO2 the last decade or more? Also the data in the more distant past is not accurate enough (global) to make such claims. The last video talks about the human effect on CO2 increase, but does not talk about how much that could affect temperature. Negative feedback could prevent any significant sensitivity, and actual data seems to support that being valid. In general, the material is very poor.
The last one is very strange. The question is "how can we be sure that we are responsible for global warming". And the answer is all about man-made carbon dioxide.
And "is there a limit to global warming" slipping in an IPCC 5 degrees warming estimate for this next century which as far as I am aware is:
a) wrong anyway
b) not taking into account recent significant declines in sensitivity estimates
Also the "how much would the sea level rise if all ice melted ?" question is just hyperbolic nonsense because it's not going to happen in the next 500 years EVEN IF the over the top projections are correct. Shameful.
My unease increases exactly in the order of the videos. The last is a complete failure to respond the publically very important question. For sea-level rise and the cold winters I would've liked to hear sth. about the large uncertainties and limited knowledge. According to PIK, the "global warming makes winters colder in Europe" appears to be a fact rather than a hypothesis with some evidence.
It would be interesting to hear why we didn't know that before (some) winters became cold if it is really a fact. Would that also mean that todays cold winters are then dynamically different from cold winters some decades ago? And how was that during earlier warming periods e.g. during the Holocene? Maybe I missed the publications.
Off topic: Hart aber Fair (ARD) stellt nun die Frage nach "Laune oder Rache der Natur?" zum aktuellen Hochwasser mit Latif, Altmaier et al. (später auch in Mediathek abrufbar).
The Last Video answered the question: How do we know that we are causing global warming?
Basically With:
Because there is manmade CO2
@ 1
'but how do you explain the lack of continued warming with increasing CO2 the last decade or more?'
The trends in the last 15 years is still positive s although small. If you calculate the linear trend of the global temperature for windows of 15 years or smaller, you will see that only for some choices - last 13 years, last 14 years - is the trend negative.
You are right that they are nevertheless small, smaller that most climate models simulate. That may be simply interpreted as a sign that models overestimate climate sensitivity - just a possibility - not that CO2 is not affecting climate.
On the other hand - there is, so far, no alternative theory to explain the warming of the last 30 years
'Also the data in the more distant past is not accurate enough (global) to make such claims'
This is exactly my point. Whether or not temperatures 1000 years ago were cooler or warmer than today does not say anything about the factors that have influenced climate in the 20th century.
Herr Hess,
Atmospheric CO2 must cause a rise in temperatures. We see its fingerprint in the outgoing infra-red spectrum of the planet. So, it is assured that CO2 is trapping heat, and reflecting it to the surface. The question is whether other factors may be counteracting or strengthening this effect. This much more uncertain.
Dear Mr. Zorita,
I just wanted to hint that your colleague didn't answer the question.
Regards
Günter Heß
"eduardo said" : "On the other hand - there is, so far, no alternative theory to explain the warming of the last 30 years." Because you don't like or believe the theories put forth to explain the warming that is happening, does NOT mean there are no such explanations.
Also the statement in your blog, "the Deutsche Welle has put up a nice page with short answers to climate questions." is a little disingenuos; if I'm not mistaken that is you in the first video (and by the way, the text you put up in the beginning of said video is a question and not an argument).
Regards,
Terry Carlson
Milpitas, CA USA
Here is an interesting review of some relevant studies about "Has the rate of surface warming changed? 16 years revisited".
Noteworthy: "However the conclusions of the current video do not represent a consensus in the peer-reviewed results, and thus we will be withdrawing the current version"
scepticalsience.com
@10
Terry,
I am all ears. We need an explanation for :
the warming of the 20th century
steady sea level rise in the 20th century
cooling of the stratosphere in the last decades
Acknowledging that the re are still many open questions, I honestly do not know of any other physical explanation for these three observations - let alone an explanation that provides a prediction for the future that could be falsified.
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