Bray-and-von Storch surveys: aspects of models' skill and confidence in results evaluated

The article "Models, manifestation and attribution of climate change" by  Hans von Storch, Dennis Bray has been published by the Polish journal "Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management" (vol. 5; (1): 47-52). It is the first article, which covers all five surveys

Whom do you call Alarmist, whom a Skeptic?

… that I was asked a few weeks ago at a public discussion with a lay audience. This question was of course lingering around for a while, and I tried to avoid answering it, because I was concerned it would lead to a discussion about people. I think now that we can discuss this issue without referring to specific people, but to concepts. When preparing a talk, given to a group of journalists, I found an answer, which is mostly consistent with an analysis by Quentin Quencher on this weblog.

Dennis Bray's surveys of climate scientists

Dennis Bray

It seems that there is renewed interest in the surveys of Dennis Bray (and myself as junior partner) of climate scientists. Four of such surveys have been done. Results of three of these are published; a fourth one, run in early 2013, is presently evaluated. We give here the references to reports and analyses.