I'm still here

For all the survivors of the Maya crisis,  Happy Holidays!

Geoengineering, 'gobs', free riders, and free drivers

The Economist has a comment on a recent paper by economist Martin Weitzman who speculates about the prospects for geoengineering (focussing only on aerosol injection). Starting from a common distinction made in economics, between public goods and their externalities, he states that we face two different problems with regard to climate change. The first is the interest of everyone (read: nation states) to avoid dangerous warming but not to bear the costs. This is known as the free rider problem.

The end of climate summits as we knew them?

In Germany, an interesting shift in climate research can be noticed. On spiegel-online, the journalist Alex Bojanowski picked up a recent trend and interviewed several researchers, mostly from the field of cultural and social sciences about the future of climate negotiations after Doha. In his article "Rethinking global warming: Experts call for end to climate mega summits", he states:

Top climate researchers have had enough, though. Several leading experts at internationally renowned institutes in Germany are demanding an end to the climate summit charade. It is time to begin confronting the reality of a warmer future rather than meekly insisting that global warming can be slowed without taking action to make that happen, they say.

IPCC draft report leaked

Yesterday Alec Rawls, a self-described climate sceptic and IPCC reviewer, has put a draft of the next IPCC report on the web. The website went down immediately down under overload. Commentators and twitterati are divided: some see it as a fullfilment of the demand for more transparency, others are up in arms about the unethical breach of the terms of confidentiality (each IPCC reviewer has to sign up to a secrecy clause when registering, see the experience of one of my colleagues at my university for an inside view).

Andy Revkin has spoken out in favour of the leaking and posted new links to alternative servers. So if you want to read the draft, I suggest you follow these.
Revkin has something very interesting to say about the changing climate of these pre-release leaks:

It’s important, before anyone attacks Rawls for posting the drafts (this is distinct from his views on their contents), to consider that panel report drafts at various stages of preparation have been leaked in the past by people with entirely different points of view.
That was the case in 2000, when I was leaked a final draft of the summary for policy makers of the second science report from the panel ahead of that year’s round of climate treaty negotiations. As I explained in the resulting news story, “A copy of the summary was obtained by The New York Times from someone who was eager to have the findings disseminated before the meetings in The Hague.”

Das Ende der Klimapolitik wie wir sie kannten?

Heute ist in der Folge von Doha der Aufmacher auf spiegel-online: "Forscher fordern Ende der Weltklimagipfel". Axel Bojanowski erläutert hierbei in fünf Schritten und unter Mithilfe mancher Klimazwiebel-Lesern wohlbekannter Experten, wohin die Reise geht: Er diagnostiziert das Sterben der Uno-Klimakonferenzen, er nennt als Ursache das 2 Grad Ziel, das zur Stagnation führt und stellt die provokante Frage, um was es eigentlich geht: Klima oder Menschen schützen? Dem herrschenden Mechanismus entspricht das wenig Erfolg verheißende Geo-Engineering, wogegen der Fokus auf die Menschen, die Regionen, wo sie leben und die Lokalpolitik auf Akzeptanz stößt, wirkungsvollere Maßnahmen und damit auch einen pragmatischen Umgang mit dem Klimawandel ermöglicht.

Disputed Climate Science in the Media

I have a new paper out (co-authored with Mike Scott). It is called 'Disputed climate science in the media: Do countries matter?' and published in Public Understanding of Science (doi:10.1177/0963662512467732).
[Update: Download an unformatted version from Academia or Dropbox]
This is how it starts:

There is a widespread concern among climate scientists, environmentalists and policy makers that they are in a war of words on climate change and seem to be losing out. Sir John Houghton told the BBC:

Germany's turn to renewables means more coal power

Germany's energy transition (Energiewende) supposedly serves as a role model for other countries. There are high hopes that Germany's know how in renewable energy will lead to a competitive advantage on future energy markets. This may be the case but so far the story is not off to a good start. In order to plug the gap left by decommissioning nuclear plants and to even out intermittent wind and solar energy, utility companies find it most profitable to use coal power. The economics of the energy markets is unambiguous, as this Bloomberg analysis shows.

Lesernachfrage: Numerische Fehler in Modellen

Mich erreichte vor einiger Zeit diese Nachfrage:

Sehr geehrter Herr Kollege von Storch,
kürzlich hatten wir ... einen Vortrag von XXX über Klimamodelle. Auf meine Frage nach einigen mathematischen Aspekten hat er mich an Sie verwiesen. Es geht um Folgendes:
1. Soviel ich weiß, verwendet man für Klimavorhersagen Wettervorhersagemodelle, die zwar wegen des chaotischen Charakters des Systems keine langfristigen Vorhersagen liefern können, aber man nimmt an, dass doch gewisse statistische Größen ( Mittelwerte, Varianzen, vielleicht sogar Extremwerte ) richtig vorhergesagt werden. Ist dies eigentlich in einem geeigneten mathematischen Sinn gesichert? Oder gibt es nur modellmäßig-empirische Evidenz hierfür?
2. Selbst wenn man Diskretisierungsfehler kurzfristig klein halten kann, könnte es nicht sein, dass sie langfristig doch einen "bias" in die Ergebnisse produzieren? Und selbst wenn man versucht, durch Korrekturen mittels Erhaltungssätzen das zu verhindern, könnten nicht doch die räumlichen Verteilungen Schaden nehmen?
Wenn über Klimamodelle gesprochen wird, gibt es so viele physikalisch relevante Aspekte, dass von diesen mathematisch und numerisch begründeten Problemen wenig die Rede ist. Ich wäre Ihnen sehr dankbar, wenn sie mich auf eventuelle Antworten zu diesen Fragen hinweisen könnten. 

Da ich denke, dass solche Fragen auch andere Menschen bewegen, beantworte ich sie hier.

Why are they talking past each other?

Andrew Hoffman has an excellent article on the issue polarization observed by many in the climate change debate. He distinguishes between 'convinced' and 'skeptical' logics which are represented by various actors, organizations, and social movements. Both sides demonize each other, exhibiting deeply held, but opposing values. His data comes from two sources, interviews and participant observation at the Heartland Institute conference in 2010, and an analysis of over 800 U.S. newspaper editorials and letters to the editor from September 2007 to September 2009.

"Mit dem Klima schauts ja a weng düster aus"

Gestern abend im ZDF bei "Pelzig hält sich" ein sehr schönes Interview mit Mojib Latif. Nach einem launischen Intro von Pelzig mit fröhlichem FDP bashing und Fred Singer special fängt es ca. bei 7:00 min. an. Es lohnt sich in Gänze anzuschauen, Mojib Latif ist in Bestform: "Jeder Satz ein Treffer", wie Pelzig neidlos anerkennt. Kostprobe: ""Wenn das Klima eine Bank wäre, hätte man es längst gerettet". Pelzig hat ein paar Zuschauer mehr als die Klimazwiebel Leser, von daher ist es durchaus legitim, aus diesem Gespräch ein paar Rückschlüsse auf den derzeitigen Stand der Klimadebatte zu ziehen.
(Themen sind u.a. die die Konferenz in Doha; die Skeptiker; Forschung in einem hochpolitischen Raum; Fritz Vahrenholt; die Lobby der Energiewirtschaft, die dafür sorgt, dass die Lasten der Energiewende auf den Bürger abgewälzt wird; ein Loblied deutschen Bürgerengagements und die Verantwortung des Wissenschaftlers, Stellung zu beziehen.)

Geden in der NZZ: Für mehr Realismus in der Klimapolitik

Heute in der NZZ zu lesen:

Seit 20 Jahren verhandeln Regierungsvertreter aus aller Welt über den Klimaschutz. Doch die Bilanz fällt ernüchternd aus. Die Treibhausgasemissionen steigen stetig weiter an. Die erreichten Vereinbarungen hingegen fallen äusserst schwach aus. Im Umfeld der jährlichen Gipfeltreffen vollzieht sich das immergleiche Ritual. In den Wochen vor der Konferenz warnen zahlreiche Studien drastisch vor den Folgen des Klimawandels. Kurz vor Beginn mahnen Wissenschafter und Politiker zur Umkehr. Zu Beginn des Verhandlungsmarathons macht sich dann bald Ernüchterung breit. Zum Ende der zweiwöchigen Konferenzen aber entwickelt sich doch noch eine gewisse Dramatik. Oft können die ehrgeizigeren Staaten eine Gipfeldeklaration durchsetzen, an die sich neue Zukunftshoffnungen knüpfen lassen, etwa ein ambitioniertes Klimaziel oder ein neuer Verhandlungszeitplan. Anschliessend rückt das Thema auf der politischen Agenda wieder nach unten.
...Wenn die Phase der Untätigkeit dereinst überwunden sein wird, dürften deshalb vor allem zwei Politikansätze attraktiv sein, die schnelle Wirkung versprechen: Anpassung und Geo-Engineering.

POPULEAKS - so what ?

Ich fand dies in meiner Mail Box - eigentlich ein interessanter Ansatz, oder?

Anything wrong here?

I recently received the following link: https://vimeo.com/53979295.  It is a rather frightening story produced by Scientia Productions that claims  "Scientia Productions is a small independent production company specializing in high quality documentaries dedicated to authentic educational television, documentary production and innovative educational websites. We feature the research of many of the world's best academics and scholars presented in multiple formats from web-based video to 1080p High Definition Television. Our staff consists of academics that specialize in New Media Applications, specifically HD video and web-based communication. The company is committed to the principles of academic freedom, quality educational experiences, 'qualified' research and conveying that research to society. Scientia evolved to fill a niche communicating academic research results for applications in society, including formal and informal education and policy development and planning for sustainable futures."

Coming out about climate change

Anne Karpf has an interesting piece in the Guardian in which she describes her 'tuning out' from the climate change discourse, especially from its ubiquitous exhortations. She thinks she might be something worse than a climate change sceptic: a climate change ignorer. This seems to capture a common spirit of being concerned about global warming but unable to engage with the issue in any meaningful, permanent way.

New AGU interview: Victoria Slonosky

Another interview with a climate scientist in my AGU series: Victoria Slonosky - read the Newsletter of the Atmospheric Science Section of AGU, November 2012

Now, the NAO

In a recent post, we discussed the factors that may be driving the North Atlantic Oscillation up or down, as opposite  trends have been put forward to explain droughts in the Mediterranean and the unusual behaviour of hurricane Sandy . What kind of simulation could provide an answer ?

Nichts Neues in Doha?

Spiegel-online macht heute, wie zu erwarten, mit dem Klimagipfel in Doha auf. Zyniker könnten meinen, dass man doch einfach den Artikel vom letzten oder vorletzten oder vorvorletzten Klimagipfel zu recyclen brauche. Doch wer genau hinsieht, wie Christoph Seidel hier, der erkennt die subtilen Entwicklungen, die es eben auch gibt. Die Kritik am 2-Grad Ziel hat sich als roter Faden der Berichterstattung etabliert, und das würde ich als Zeichen werten, dass es auch als Verhandlungsziel früher oder später an Bedeutung verlieren und durch etwas Realistischeres ersetzt werden wird. Neben den üblichen Verdächtigen ruft der Spiegel inzwischen auch bei Oliver Geden an, der in zweierlei Hinsicht die Richtung weist: erstens für eine Strategie weg vom 2 Grad Ziel hin zu strategischen Bündnissen von Willigen,  und - damit eng verbunden - von einer Verlagerung des Diskurses weg von der Klimawissenschaft hin zur Politik. Damit dürfte das Spannungsfeld, in dem die Verhandlungen in Katar stattfinden, angemessen umrissen sein. Ein große Aufgabe für die Politik, die dafür eigentlich auch einmal Bewunderung verdient hätte.

Anfrage im Bundestag

Mündliche Fragen des Abgeordneten Dr. Hermann E. Ott (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) vom 25.10.2012, Arbeitsnummern 69 und 70, im Zusammenhang mit dem ACATECH "Gutachten" zur Anpassung in Deutschland - für die Fragestunde am 07.11.2012 mitsamt Antworten des Bundesregierung, siehe http://www.hermann-e-ott.de/fileadmin/content/medien/121107_Antwort_Fragen_Acatech.pdf. Demnach hält die Bundesregierung das 2 Grad Ziel weiterhin für erreichbar.

Am Lagerfeuer

The politics of despair

As the negotiations are getting underway for COP 18 in Doha, commentators have started making their noises. Usual noises, following a well-known, worn-out script. Fiona Harvey in the Guardian writes under the headline

Slow pace of carbon cuts brings catastrophic climate change closer: UN

The gap between the carbon emission cuts pledged and the cuts scientists say are needed has widened, report warns
quoting 'warnings' from those in the business who know. Warnings about the gap between what needs to be done in terms of GHG reductions and actual achievements. UNEP director Steiner and UN

What future for climate science?

Tom Bogdan, the new President of the US University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) gave an interesting talk about the future of (US) climate science.

You can see the slides here. He asks if climate change is on its way to obscurity or will be able to show its relevance.

Edenhofer, Hulme et al. on the 2 degree target

There is an interesting exchange between various participants about the 2 degrees target. A must read for Klimazwiebel regulars.

Source: O. Edenhofer et al. (eds.), Climate Change, Justice and Sustainability: 121
Linking Climate and Development Policy, DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-4540-7_12

H/T Warren Pearce

140 years ago - a devastating storm surge in the Baltic Sea

Das Institut für Küstenforschung des Helmholtz-Zentrums Geesthacht erinnert an die schwerste Sturmflut am 13. November 1872 in der westlichen Ostsee, und erinnert daran, daß diese Gefahr weiterhin besteht und zukünftig vermutlich erhöht sein wird. Ein neues Instrument zeigt an, welche Gebiete bei welcher Sturmfluthöhe geschützt werden müssen.

Die Ostsee-Sturmflut

vom 13. November 1872

Webseite informiert über Küstenschutzbedarf heute und in Zukunft

"Bewohner, die heute an der deutschen Ostseeküste leben, haben noch nie solch eine schwere Sturmflut erlebt wie ihre Vorfahren vor 140 Jahren am 12. / 13. November 1872. – Glücklicherweise, denn heute ist das etwa 1700 Quadratkilometer große Gebiet an der Ostseeküste, das vor solch hohen Wasserständen geschützt werden muss, mit rund 1,7 Millionen Einwohnern viel dichter besiedelt und stärker genutzt als damals. Auch in Zeiten des Klimawandels ist es jedoch unerlässlich, dass Bewohner, Investoren und Politiker ein realistisches Gefahrenbewusstsein bezüglich Sturmfluten haben. Denn bis Ende des Jahrhunderts könnte eine Sturmflut, wie die vom 13. November 1872 vor allem durch den zu erwartenden Meeresspiegelanstieg höher auflaufen. So könnte der Küstenschutzbedarf an der deutschen Ostseeküste bis Ende des Jahrhunderts um etwa 25 Prozent zunehmen. Auf einer Webseite zeigt das Norddeutsche Klimabüro am Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht jetzt, welche Gebiete an der deutschen Ostseeküste heute vor Sturmfluten geschützt werden und welche Ende des Jahrhunderts vor möglicherweise höheren Sturmfluten geschützt werden müssten: www.kuestenschutzbedarf.de."

Sandy & climate change

Normal Accidents of Expertise

Stephen Turner, a professor of philosophy at the University of South Florida has published a thought provoking article in Minerva. The title "normal accidents" in the title of his paper refers to a concept developed by organisational sociologist Charles Perrow who wrote a book with the same title in which he claimed that some technologies inevitably produce accidents. This is the case when systems are complex and tightly coupled (see above for the 2x2 matrix which shows the four combinations). Perrow's examples are technological disasters which happened in chemical or nuclear plants. If something goes wrong in one part of the system the fault will propagate through the whole system and lead to unpredictable, sometimes catastrophic consequences. Lose coupling would prevent the spreading of such failures, they are more forgiving.

Climategate revisited

Last night BBC radio 4 had an half hour feature which you can listen to here. There is a selection of statements from the likes of Michael Mann, Steve McIntyre, Andrew Montford, Bob Ward, Fiona Harvey, Mike Hulme, among others. Interesting is the opinion voiced by some that there was a period of openness in the climate science community following in the months after Climategate, but that this period is over--it has given way to a retrenchment. However, published research in the climate sciences emphasizes uncertainties more than before, as Mike Hulme observes. Finally, the detective superintendent police officer investigating the case concludes that we do not know if the data was hacked or leaked. In a few weeks the legal powers to prosecute will cease so maybe the real email hacker/leaker will step forward.

The perfect spin

Scientific American has put up a detailed explanation of why hurricane Sandy may be linked to anthropogenic climate change: a chain of events that, critically, involves the North Atlantic Oscillation nudged towards a negative state by the melting of Arctic sea-ice. On the other hand,   realclimate explained in 2007 that climate change was threatening the Mediterranean region with more severe droughts because climate change would nudge the North Atlantic Oscillation towards a  positive state. The IPCC model suite of 2007 would show these trends  very clearly.

This seems harder to understand than the wave-particle dualism, but the explanation is easy: both arguments  are  realizations of a certain sort of climate noise. 

Interview mit Klimazwiebel-Diskutant "Andreas"

Andreas, Sie sind einer der aktivsten Diskussionsteilnehmer hier auf der Klimazwiebel. Daher heute dies Interview. Ich werde Sie fragen, wer Sie sind, worin Ihr Interesse am Klimathema herrührt, und wie Sie die Klimazwiebel erleben.

Earthquake politics, tornado politics

The recent jail sentence handed out to Italian seismologists has provoked angry reactions from across a spectrum of commentators. Some of these seem to have been written in the heat of the moment. In good academic tradition it is perhaps better to analyse the issues at play, as dispassionately as possible. I have drafted a paper in which I try to provide an account of decision making under uncertainty in which scientific expertise has been used in a specific way by public authorities.

Helm's new book on facing climate change

It is not the failure of the regulations that is the problem but their basic design. They have caused people to focus on the most expensive ways of mitigating climate change, rather than the cheapest, imposing high costs for little gain. Moreover, by concentrating on their own carbon production, and how to reduce it, Europeans have ignored the impact of their continued demand for goods made using carbon- intensive processes. Since Chinese and Indian manufacturing is usually dirtier than Europe’s, the real upshot of Europe’s choices has been an increase in global emissions. The regulatory approach, argues Mr Helm, has got the worst of all worlds. It is expensive, it has not cut emissions and its treaties are unworkable. No wonder the public is growing sceptical.

http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21564815-climate-change-needs-better-regulation-not-more-political-will

I have not read the book (yet), but it seems to me that current policies are not working. So it may be worth looking at alternatives

Perilous science advice

Simon Jenkins in the Guardian sees some merit in the Aquila court decision (see here for an excellent comment). While he does not go as far as justifying the jail sentences for the six scientific experts who "failed to predict" the earthquake in Italy, he thinks they should be held to account, just like other professionals:

Nachfrage aus der Öffentlichkeit

Hier noch ein Nachfrage an mich:

...ich habe ein Problem, dass direkt mit Ihrem Namen verbunden ist.
    Ich bin Lehrer ... . Jedes Jahr werden hier von sieben Kursen der Oberstufe Kursfahrten, oder besser: Kursflüge unternommen. Nun gibt es eine Initiative einiger Lehrer, entweder auf Flüge ganz zu verzichten oder - falls das nicht durchzusetzen ist - wenigstens einen CO2-Ausgleich an Atmosfair zu zahlen, die ja nicht einfach Bäume pflanzen, sondern sie fördern ja Technologien, die CO2 einsparen sollen. Das Ablasshandel-Argument ist uns wohl bekannt, aber wenn sich ein Verzicht auf Flüge schon nicht durchsetzen lässt, dann wenigstens Ausgleich.

Global warming, finally a major issue (among others)

Skeptikeranfrage

Kürzlich bekam ich diese Zuschrift; ich denke, die Nachfrage ist nicht untypisch, und gebe daher den kurzen Austausch wieder:

"... kürzlich las ich noch einmal Ihre Rede zum 80. Geburtstag von Prof. Hasselmann, die im November 2011 in der FAZ abgedruckt wurde. Dort schrieben Sie, dass die Wissenschaft als einzige Ursache für die periodisch auftretenden Warmperioden einen Anstieg des CO2-Gehalts der Atmosphäre erkannt hat. Weitere Gründe habe man einfach nicht gefunden. Nun werden inzwischen große Anstrengungen unternommen, um die Erzeugung von CO2 zu verringern, damit die Erderwärmung unterhalb 2°C bleibt.

Has Global Warming taken a break?

Last week the English paper Mail on Sunday had a story claiming that a Met Office report shows global warming had stopped 16 years ago. The article, written by David Rose, caused a storm and was contested in a piece Dana Nuccitelli had written for Skeptical Science and published by the Guardian. It is certainly no accident that these two papers aligned themselves in predictable ways. And it is no accident that corresponding blogs reacted in predictable ways.

What is the fuss about? The Mail article shows temperature data from 1997 to 2012 with no warming trend.

Eine Anfrage zum Hockeyschläger

Christoffer Bugge Harder hat uns ein paar Fragen gestellt im Zusammenhang mit den Auseinandersetzungen um den Hockeystick. Die Mail ging an mich (Hans von Storch), aber tatsächlich hatte Eduardo die Sache viel besser erlebt. Wir geben diese Fragen hier mit erlaubnis von Christoffer wieder (unverändert abgesehen von der Korrektur kleinster sprachlicher Unklarheiten) zusammen mit den Antworten von Eduardo Zorita:

Zwei Grad, vier Grad...

Frank Drieschner hat einen interessanten Beitrag in der Zeit veröffentlicht. Das Thema ist das 2-Grad Ziel, das er, wie auf der Klimazwiebel oft diskutiert, für realitätsfern hält. Seine Gewährspersonen sind unter anderen Oliver Geden, der nierderländische Mathematiker und IPCC Autor Michel den Elzen, und die Klimazwiebel (nicht genannt, aber sichtbar sind das Hartwell Paper und Roger Pielke Jr). Er beginnt den Artikel mit der Feststellung

Fahrt weniger Auto, dämmt eure Häuser, dann wird der Klimawandel nicht so schlimm – das haben wir geglaubt. Doch unser Planet wird trotzdem heiß, trocken und lebensfeindlich werden. Selbst wenn wir radikal umsteuern

Interview with Eduardo Zorita

Interview with Eduardo Zorita
by Hans von Storch

Is climate change the number one threat to humanity?

There is a new paper out under this title by Indur Goklany, to be published in WIRES Climate Change.

Here is the abstract:
This paper challenges claims that global warming outranks other threats facing humanity through the foreseeable future (assumed to be 2085–2100). World Health Organization and British government‐sponsored global impact studies indicate that, relative to other factors, global warming's impact on key determinants of human and environmental well‐being should be small through 2085 even under the warmest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario.

Reinhard Böhm gestorben

Our friend Reinhard Böhm has died, unexpectedly but at least on his beloved Sonnenblick. Wonderful critical observer not only of climate but also of the social process "climate science". His book "Heisse Luft" was an inspiring (and well written) read. (Is the song "Komm lieber Mai und mache die Bäume wieder grün" of Mozart indicative that it is now warmer than in Mozart's times? - No ... read Reinhard.) Spiegel on-line has more on this sad news.

Media "overkill" -- could it be true?

Regular readers of this blog will remember that we had quite a few discussions about the alleged (or real) alarmism over climate change. The UK (among other countries) seemed to be a case in point. Now the EU climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, is on record of saying pretty much the same (or at least some unnamed source close to her -- you see, it is a sensitive issue).

Vortrag vor Studenten der Cusanus-Stiftung

Vortrag vor Studierenden und Promovierenden der katholischen Cusanus-Stiftung in Osnabrück: Klimaforschung in der Gesellschaft. Es handelt sich um Hochbegabten Förderung durch die katholische Kirche in Deutschland. Ein breites Fächerspektrum einschl. Theologie, Jura und Physik.

Carbon and Coal

Dieter Helm, the Oxford economist and climate change expert, has a new book out. It is called
The Carbon Crunch: How We’re Getting Climate Change Wrong – and How to Fix it. He has written a blog which summarizes the main points here. He argues that the coming years will see an increase in carbon emissions, primarily through additional energy generation with coal power plants. Emerging economies will be using this form of energy supply because it is cheap. It is also dirty, in fact the dirtiest form of energy. China and India are currently opening 3 coal power stations a week.

UK public on climate change

An interesting report is out, co-authored by Emily Shuckburgh, Rosie Robison and Nick Pidgeon. It examines the public perception of climate science and climate scientists in the UK, comparing data collected in six focus group interviews. There are some results which will not surprise Klimazwiebel regulars, others might. Below I summarize the main findings:

Halfway point

Remember the headlines that we have 10-15 years to save the planet? Six years ago Tony Blair warned that the world will reach "catastrophic tipping points" on climate change "within 15 years, unless serious action is taken to tackle global warming." The Guardian from 2006 quoted him saying "We have a window of only 10-15 years to take the steps we need to avoid crossing catastrophic tipping points." This rhetoric was deployed in the run up to the climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009. After its failure it seemed to have been forgotten, almost an embarrassment. Mainstream politicians, keen to use the rhetoric before 2009, seemed to have ditched it afterwards.

Climate change: the mess we are in

Imagine an alien from Mars asking you: what is the fuzz about climate change all about? You don't need the help of a noble prize winner to explain; a good journalist will do the job and give our extraterrestrial  friend an insight into the mess we are in. The climate mess is in fact an everyday story, like this one about artificial snow in an American ski resort:

"This coming ski season", the New York Times reports, "the resort, Arizona Snowbowl, will become the first ski resort in the world to use 100% sewage effluent to make artificial snow". The reason for this is climate change: Snowmaking is necessary to remain competitive, to guarantee the resort is open on Thanksgiving or Christmas latest, and to have a consistent ski season.

For many years now, 13 American Indian tribes and environmental groups are fighting against "the ski resort's expansion plans in the San Franciscan peaks that include clear-cutting of 74 acres of forest and piping treated sewage effluent onto a mountain to make snow." The protesters "consider the mountain sacred and view the wastewater snow a desecration". Taylor McKinnon of the Center for Biological Diversity, says: "It's a disaster, environmentally and culturally".

Carbon Kicks

It's time for another poem on klimazwiebel, your favorite climate-poetry blog. Science is about finding out how climate works, how it functions. Philosophy tries to give it a meaning and to make sense of it (?). And finally arts and poetry try to figure out how it feels.

Recently, I posted Richard Braeutigan's 1962 techno-poem "All watched over by machines of loving grace" - a hippie-technology fantasy, a vision of an IT- controlled smart-grid world.

Half a century later, for the poet Michael Robbins (educated by Guns N Roses, hip-hop and the University of Chicago), Braeutigan's vision definitively has turned into a technological nightmare. He seems to live in a world with unclear boundaries between video games and reality, a kind of i-nightmare, and in his poem he struggles with issues like hybrid creatures, terror, and his carbon footprint which has turned him into a "Yeti for the Sherpas". Machines of loving grace? Well, not exactly - anger has raised his "appetite for destruction":

The end of tribalism?

Post-Climategate: debating the end of tribalism 

In a very reflective post, Judith Curry looks back at a courageous statement by Mojib Latif about the cooling of temperatures:

From an article in the New Scientist by Fred Pearce, written in Sept 2009:
One of the world’s top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool. “I am not one of the sceptics,” insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. “However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.”

As usually, Judith Curry sums up the discussions surrounding this statement, pre- and post- Climategate, and provides some interesting links. But her main focus is on the term nasty. She writes:

New, and (so far:) last CLISAP interview

In a series of in total 12 interviews with various participants at the Hamburg center of excellence CLISAP, the last interview has been published. This time the media researcher Andreas Schmidt

What's going on at the IPCC?

There are some disturbing news regarding the IPCC. As Roger Pielke Jr. reports on his blog, there is a strange tendency in the IPCC to exaggerate observed disaster losses due to climate change. He lists several examples where he had made suggestions to the IPCC of how to alter the official narrative, in order to avoid such exaggerations. The reply by the IPCC is sobering: it does not even seem to acknowledge the charges made by Pielke. This begs the question if they took him seriously in the first place. It seems not. As I remarked in a comment on his blog, this looks very much like arrogance of power or bureaucratic mentality (maybe both?). One is led to believe that the IPCC reckons no one will read the issues in any detail. Perhaps they are right in this respect and  Roger is wrong in his honest belief that "Nothing below [in his account of the saga] is complicated or nuanced." How long will it take until this is exposed to a wider audience?

Umfrage bei jungen Studenten

Eine Umfrage in einer disziplinär sehr diveren Gruppe junger Studenten:

1. Findet derzeit ein Klimawandel statt, egal ob menschgemacht oder natürlich?
1= ja 19
2= nein 0

2. Würden Sie sich als „Skeptiker“ bezeichnen?
1= ja 2,
2= nein 17

AGU Newsletter. Toshio Yamagata

This interview with the Japanese scientist Toshio Yamagata was prepared by Hans von Storch in July 2012. The original has been published in the August 2012 issue of the Newsletter of the Atmospheric Science Section of the AGU.

Toshio Yamagata is currently the director of Application Laboratory at Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. He was the Dean of School of Science of the University of Tokyo from 2009 to 2012 and after retiring from the university in 2012, he was given the title of Professor Emeritus. His has done extensive modeling and analysis work with focus on large-scale dynamical processes of the oceans and the atmosphere. He has been awarded in 2004 the American Meteorological Society’s H. U. Sverdrup Gold Medal “for his outstanding accomplishments in the study of ocean and climate dynamics, especially with respect to El Nino and air-sea interaction over the Indian Ocean.” He is a fellow of the AMS and AGU for his accomplishments and outstanding contributions to the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

Keine Kompromisse in der Anpassungsfrage

Hans von Storch und drei weitere Mitglieder sind aus einer Arbeitsgruppe der Deutschen Akademie der Technikwissenschaften (Acatech), die sich mit der Anpassung an den Klimawandel beschäftigt und von Fritz Vahrenholt geleitet wird, ausgestiegen. Die Stuttgarter Zeitung berichtet:

In einer eigenen Stellungnahme beschreiben die vier Forscher einen „fundamentalen Dissens“: Ihrer Ansicht nach hat die Klimaforschung die physikalischen Grundlagen von Treibhausgasen und Temperaturanstieg hinreichend geklärt. Acatech hält hingegen fest, dass man nicht abschätzen könne, wie sehr die Sonnenaktivität und Vulkanausbrüche das Klima der vergangenen 150 Jahre beeinflusst haben.

Hans von Storch führt noch einen weiteren Grund an:

 Man hätte die Strategien der Anpassung nicht losgelöst von der Alternative, der Vermeidung von Treibhausgasen, diskutieren dürfen. „Man hätte gleich zu Anfang klarstellen müssen, dass der Anpassungsbedarf steigt, wenn die Emissionen steigen“, sagt er.

Klare Worte. Allerdings um den Preis, dass nun keine Klimaforscher mehr in der Arbeitsgruppe sind.

The economics of Climate Change, or What happened to the Stern review?

It is about time Klimazwiebel readers get up to speed with the latest development on Nicolas Stern's famous report, commissioned by the UK Chancellor five years ago. In it, Stern famously called climate change the biggest market failure in history, suggesting carbon pricing (and carbon markets) as remedy. This report has been used as authoritative source in many quarters, above all by people endorsing stringent climate mitigation policies. It informed attempts to justify drastic and costly emission cuts, a strategy which seems to lose momentum. A firm focus on economic growth has become more important and citizen opposition to many renewable projects have stalled ambitious plans.

EU Klimaschutzziele

Kürzlich hatten wir einen interessanten Beitrag von Oliver Geden hier auf klimazwiebel mit Vorschlägen hinsichtlich einer Änderung oder gar Aufgabe des kaum mehr erreichbaren 2 Grad Ziels. Die EU Kommission erwägt offensichtlich bereits eine Änderung hinsichtlich ihrer ehrgeizigen Reduktionsziele von 30% bis 2020 auf 20%, wie auf faz-net zu lesen ist. Es ist bemerkenswert, wieviele Gründe - von denen jeder einzelne eine lange Erörterung wert wäre - sich in diesem kurzen Artikel finden. Und es ist interessant, dass diese Meldung, soweit ich das sehe, eigentlich kaum jemand hinterm Ofen - bzw jahreszeitlich angemessen - unterm Sonnenschirm hervorzulocken scheint.

Klima, Wandel & Sonntag

Die Schriftstellerin und Theaterautorin Sybille Berg ist auch Kolumnistin auf spiegel-online und denkt heute über den Klimawandel nach:

 Dieses unbestimmte Unbehagen, wenn wir von der Dürre in Amerika hören, von den Polarkuppen, die schmelzen. Dieses unbestimmte Grauen, wenn auch in unserer Nachbarschaft die Flüsse neuerdings über die Ufer treten, Hurrikane durch Deutschland fegen, im Süden Europas die Wälder kaum mehr zu brennen aufhören. 

Sollte man da nichts gegen machen? Oder sich doch eher um naheliegendere Sachen kümmern, den nervenden Chef, Stuttgart 21 oder den Kampf gegen Windräder? Und außerdem:

Oder vielleicht ist ja alles auch nur übertrieben? Vielleicht gibt es die Ökolobby, die uns alle belügt? Ich habe keine Meinung, und ich sortiere Müll, ich fahre mit der Bahn, ich weiß es doch nicht besser, so viel ich auch lese. Ich weiß nichts, und das macht, dass ich stillhalte, ruhig bin, mich über irgendetwas aufrege, das ich verstehe.

Requirements for a Renewables Revolution

Felix Mormann has published a thoughtful analysis of the renewables revolution and the challenges that come with it. You can download the full paper here. What I find remarkable is the wide range of factors considered. He does not offer a single panacea ("leave it to industry!", "leave it to the market!" "Impose high carbon prices!" etc) but discusses the regulatory framework, market incentives, innovation, R&DD, civil society responses, and technical requirements of electricity generation and transmission. He obviously knows the German and US landscape well, so has some very informed views on offer for a comparative perspective.
He obviously does not know the Hartwell approach and so fails to connect some obvious dots (e.g. between technology R&DD and regulation/taxation). He also puts much hope in the 2 degrees rhetoric and other mainstream views (like Lord Stern's). So given his starting point his paper is a rather refreshing take on climate policy.

Past temperatures and the anthropogenic greenhouse effect

When I am sitting in my room in an autumn evening reading the Klimazwiebel and decide to switch on the heating, will the heating will have any effect whatsoever on the room temperature ? After a little thought, I conclude: 'no, since temperatures the yesterday at midday were higher than as the temperature measured after switching on the heating. Thus the observed temperature rise in the room could have had natural causes'.

Policy advising - the case of coastal defense

here again - after having been accidentally deleted - the post

By Hans von Storch

In the last thread, a discussion evolved about the roles of science and technology in policy advising. One position, which was brought forward, was to leave after problem definition the advisory capacity to technology, in particular research & development done by industry.

The examples discussed were mainly from energy supply, and were dealing with global markets, such as photovoltaics. A reasonable arrangement, which was put forward, was to ask science to define the problem, let policymaking decide if it was really problem and which attributes a “solution” would need to have. After this it would be mainly a matter of technology and competition on the market.

While I consider this a reasonable model, I was wondering how this would look like in a concrete case, we at our institute (for Coastal Research, a scientific, non-technology institute) are regularly involved in, namely the challenge of changing storm surge statistics (e.g., Storm Surges: Phenomena, Forecasting and Scenarios of Change and Nordseesturmfluten im Klimawandel – GKSS Wissenschaftler fassen aktuellen Forschungsstand zusammen). 

Accidentally deleted

My contribution about policy advise in the context of coastal defense was unfortunately and accidentally deleted. Unfortunately I have no copy of the text, so that I can not easily reconstruct it. On the other hand, the interest measured in terms of comments and clicks was rather limited so that it may not be worth the effort.

Peter Weingart: Grenzen wissenschaftlicher Politikberatung – von den Möglichkeiten ganz zu schweigen

Grenzen wissenschaftlicher Politikberatung – von den Möglichkeiten ganz zu schweigen 

von Peter Weingart  

erschienen in: "Gegenworte. Hefte für den Disput über Wissen." Hg. von der Berlin-Brandenburgischen Akademie der Wissenschaften. Chefredakteur: Wolfert von Rahden. Heft 27 (2012): Grenzen der Wissenschaft, S. 12-14". Volltexte online unter: www.gegenworte.org. Nach"druck" mit freundlicher Genehmigung durch W. von Rahden.

Beitrag "Globaler Wandel, Klimawandel und regionale Anpassung"

Hans von Storch hat im Juni 2011 bei einer Veranstaltung „Wasserbezogene Anpassungsmaßnahmen an Landschafts- und Klimawandel in unterschiedlichen Flusseinzugsgebieten und Regionen“ für anwendungsnahe Fachleute aus dem Bereich Hydrologie und Landschaftsplanung den Beitrag "Globaler Wandel, Klimawandel und regionale Anpassung" vorgetragen. Jetzt ist der Tagungsband dazu erschienen

U. Grünewald, O. Bens, H. Fischer, R.F. Hüttl, K. Kaiser, A. Knierim (Hrsg.), 2012 Wasserbezogene Anpassungsmaßnahmen an den Landschafts- und Klimawandel, Schweizerbart‘sche Verlagsbuchhandlung, Stuttgart.

Studying urban heat island effect on a bike

It is long known that in cities there may be a significant climatic effect due to urbanization - thus in cities we have the interesting and challenging task of determining at least three significant drivers for change, if not more, namely the effect of the local modification of the environment as well as the local manifestation of global change due to greenhouse gases (plus, possibly other global factors). Unfortunately, systematic studies about the determination and separation of these effects - in principle a detection and attribution task - have not been done often. At least, I am not aware of such efforts; indeed even studies only on the size and distribution of the urban heat island effect (UHI) are not done often; in Hamburg, a first study was only published in the last few years - before that one could hear that in a maritime climatic environment as Hamburg, the effect would be negligible. It is not.

Tageschau oder Politiken

"Fast die gesamte Oberfläche des grönländischen Eisschilds ist Mitte Juli zumindest angetaut. Das teilte die US-Weltraumagentur NASA mit. Das Ausmaß sei größer als in allen zurückliegenden Jahren, in denen dieser Prozess mit Satelliten beobachtet werde", teilt tagesschau.de unter der Überschrift "Grönland taut an".

Pragmatism and Cultural Studies

Fundamental ideologies, beliefs, values, artifacts (technology / tool / literature and poems)), values, assumptions are the things that make up culture. (I am sure I have missed a few but you get the idea.). In our cultural analysis of climate change many of these have been catalogued in one way or another, in one region or another, at one time or another, with one group of people or another. We have learned ‘how people feel about nature’ or ‘how people feel about climate change’ and I have also been made aware of some nice poems. Now, knowledge for knowledge’s sake is a nice luxury but climate change is, we are told, about real danger in need of real pragmatic action, although many ideals are often floated.


Let’s assume for this exercise that climate change is indeed one of the greatest and most dangerous issues facing life (in all of its aspects, as we know it) on Earth. Then what is the pragmatic contribution of cultural studies? (I admit there is probably a great deal I do not know about cultural studies and would therefore be grateful for any examples.)

All Watched Over By Machines Of Loving Grace

I like to think (and
the sooner the better!)
of a cybernetic meadow
where mammals and computers
live together in mutually
programming harmony
like pure water
touching clear sky.

Hartwell Papier auf dem Vormarsch

Nico Stehr, der Soziologe aus Friedrichshafen, plädiert auf spiegel-online für eine "Neue Klimapolitik" und fordert: "Vergesst unsere Umweltsünden!" Routinemäßig werden in vielen Kreisen Klimatagungen der UNO als Flop, das Kyoto-Modell als zum Scheitern verurteilt und die Klimapolitik insgesamt als ein Debakel bezeichnet. So auch nach der jüngsten UN Klimatagung in Berlin. Zeit also, wieder einmal auf das Hartwell-Papier hinzuweisen, das auf der klimazwiebel ja schon oft diskutiert wurde. Nico Stehr ist einer der Autoren dieses Papiers, zu denen so namhafte Leute wie unser geschätzter Reiner Grundmann, Mike Hulme, Dan Sarewitz, Roger Pielke jr. oder Steve Rayner gehören - alles große Namen, die den "anthropogenen Klimawandel" nicht nur als ein rein naturwissenschaftliches Problem betrachten. Bei den Hartwellern steht nicht die CO2 Reduktion im Vordergrund der Forderungen, sondern das eigentlich eher  klimaferne Ziel der "Menschenwürde". Die Entkarbonisierung ist, so Nico Stehr, "nur als ein Nebengewinn zu erreichen (...), der bei der Verfolgung anderer, politisch attraktiver und pragmatischer Ziele abfällt."

Sustainable climate science

A discussion about "sustainable climate science" has been published as

von Storch, H., 2012: Sustainable climate science, In: M. Reckermann, K. Brander, B. MacKenzie and A. Omstedt (eds): Climate Impacts on the Baltic Sea: From Science to Policy, 201-209

The full manuscript is available from academia.edu, the abstract reads:
To do climate science sustainably, a number of constraints in practicing research and communicating science need to be implemented. Among them are the admission of uncertainty and the possibility for future revision, the recognition that scientific knowledge is challenged and influenced by cultural constructions, and the usage of accurate language, which is not conflicting with every-day language. That scientific knowledge does not directly lead to political conclusions must also be recognized. A few elements needed for a successful science-public dialogue are listed and discussed.

post-normal climate science: special issue

We are glad to announce a special issue of  "Nature and Culture" on "post-normal climate science", edited by Werner Krauss, Mike S. Schäfer and Hans von Storch. It is follow-up to our last year's workshop on "post-normal science: the case of climate research", which was discussed for example here and now gets a wonderful update by Jerry Ravetz, who puts the workshop into the context of the history of post-normal science.  During this summer, we will present his and all the other articles here on klimazwiebel for discussion. 

Judith Curry already presented Silke Beck's article from this special issue,  'Between tribalism and trust: The IPCC under the "public microscope",' here on Climate etc. This is an excellent piece of social science, which aims to reconstruct a debate in order to show how it came into being and to make it understandable. This is not about truth or not truth, right or wrong: this is about the social dynamics of a public and highly contested debate.

Read here the abstract (main parts of the text and a link to the manuscript you find on the Judith Curry link)

Psychologische Beratungsstellen?

Ein Leser berichtet:

So gerade gesehen auf der CSC webseite (siehe unten).

Kindern geht es also am besten wenn sie - trotz der objektiven Bedrohung des Klimawandels - entweder in die Wissenschaft(ler) vertrauen, oder auf Gott. Das ist wohl beides gleich hilfreich. Oder aber sie verfallen in eine Verleugnungsstrategie (werden da die zukünftigen Skeptiker heranerzogen??)  Gibt es denn - so frage ich mich - eigentlich schon psychologische Beratungsstellen für durch den Klimawandel traumatisierte Personen (insbesondere Kinder?). Das wird hier leider nicht erwähnt.

"Statistically significant scenarios"

Sometimes, scenarios of possible future climate change are examined if they would represent a "statistically significant" change from present conditions. Usage of this terminology is misleading, and valid only in a very restricted sense - because of the sampling assumptions needed for employing the machinery of statistical hypothesis testing.
This issue is discussed in the paper  "Testing ensembles of climate change scenarios for"statistical significance"by Hans von Storch and Francis W. Zwiers, which has been accepted for publication by "Climatic Change".

Trendy trends

A recurrent issue in statistical climatology is how to deal with long-term trends when one is trying to estimate correlations between two time series. A reader sent us the following question, posed to him by a friend of his, related to our test of the method applied by Mann et al to produce the hockey-stick curve in 1998

Ausweitung der Kampfzone: Die Klimablogosphäre

Die neueste Ausgabe des  "Forschungsjournal Soziale Bewegungen" hat den "Kampf um die Köpfe. Der Meinungskampf um die Klimapolitik" zum Thema. Darin schreiben u.a. Silke Beck über "Kommunikation als Schutzschild. Zur Strategie des Weltklimarats IPCC", Mike S. Schäfer über "Hacktivism" und Roger Pielke jr. über "Experten in Blogs. Positive und negative Aspekte". Die Herausgeber Jochen Roose und Mike S. Schäfer haben mich gebeten, etwas über Klimablogs in Deutschland zu schreiben. In meinem Artikel "Ausweitung der Kampfzone: Die Klimablogosphäre" gebe ich einen Überblick darüber, was wir hier auf der klimazwiebel, aber auch auf dem ETH Klimablog, der KlimaLounge, Primaklima, EIKE, ScienceSkepticalBlog oder NoTricksZone eigentlich so machen.

Rio+20 - The Hangover

George Monbiot, the influential English journalist and environmental activist writes in the Guardian on the failed Rio+20 summit, under the deadline “After Rio, we know. Governments have given up on the planet”.

It is, perhaps, the greatest failure of collective leadership since the first world war. The Earth's living systems are collapsing, and the leaders of some of the most powerful nations – the United States, the UK, Germany, Russia – could not even be bothered to turn up and discuss it. Those who did attend the Earth summit in Rio last week solemnly agreed to keep stoking the destructive fires: sixteen times in their text they pledged to pursue "sustained growth", the primary cause of the biosphere's losses.

Climate Change is a wicked problem

Jay Rosen has given an excellent account on climate change, why it is a wicked problem, and how journalists could cope with its coverage. This was delivered as keynote address to the 2nd UK Conference of Science Journalists, June 25, 2012 at The Royal Society, London.

Here are a few excerpts:

Geden: Modifikation des 2-Grad-Ziels

Wir freuen uns, hier einen neuen Artikel von Oliver Geden auf der klimazwiebel zur Diskussion stellen zu können:

Oliver Geden: Die Modifikation des 2-Grad-Ziels
Klimapolitische Zielmarken im Spannungsfeld von wissenschaftlicher Beratung, politischen Präferenzen und ansteigenden Emissionen
(eine Studie der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin)

Hier ein Interview mit Oliver Geden  zum Thema

Und jetzt auch noch auf spiegel-online für alle, die zu faul sind, die lange Fassung zu lesen!

(add 26. Juni) und hier aus dokumentarischen Gründen und der Variationen des Themas wegen:  http://derstandard.at/1339638922111/Oliver-Geden-Rio20-Handeln-statt-verhandeln-fuer-die-Umwelt

The Other Side of Climate Science

I recently submitted a paper that was somewhat against the mainstream climate change conclusions, and needless to say the paper was rejected.  It was submitted to a sociological journal which I assumed might be less partisan.  But this is not sour grapes about rejection.  I have come to view journals like clubs.  If you don’t agree with the rules of the club then you don’t get membership.  If you can’t find a club to join, start your own and seek like minded souls.  But this is not about trends in academia, it is about one single comment made by a reviewer.

Expecting the unexpected

A  new study published study in Nature alerts to impending catastrophic developments - this time not mainly based on climate change impacts but on wider developments caused by resource use. Here is the abstract:

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

Am Lagerfeuer der klimazwiebel

 

Wir sind, so Bruno Latour, nie modern gewesen. Noch immer sitzen wir ums Lagerfeuer und erzählen uns mythische Geschichten und versuchen die Angst zu bannen, dass uns der Himmel auf den Kopf fällt. Diese Angst trägt heute den Namen Klimawandel. Stellen wir uns für einen Moment vor, wir wären Claude Levi-Strauss und beugten den Kopf über eine dieser mythischen Erzählungen, die ihm von der Welt der Wilden zugtragen worden sind. Wer sind diese Wilden, die in den Spiegel schauen und das Klima zurückblicken sehen? Können wir eine Struktur erkennen, eine Symmetrie?

Der Klimawandel ist in unseren Gesellschaften bekanntlich ein abstraktes Konzept, das erst durch Messungen und Zahlenreihen berechenbar und regierbar gemacht werden kann. Es liegt in der Natur solcher Statistiken und ansteigender Kurven, dass sie ihre eigene Lesart hervorbringen. Man setzt Werte fest und misst die Sachlage daran, ob diese überschritten werden. Eben solches ist laut der Messstation auf Hawai mit dem Treibhausgas CO2 geschehen, wie Alexander Bojanowski auf spiegel-online berichtet.

Interview with Christopher Castro

In my series of interviews with Atmospheric scientists for the newsletter of the Atmospheric Science Section of the American Geophysical Union, I have now interviewed Christopher Castro, who is an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Arizona. The interview was published in the May 2012 issue of the Newsletter - it is #15 in my AGU series (there is a second series, among scientists from the Hamburg Center of Excellence CLISAP).

BR TV zum Thema Skeptiker: 3. Juni, 21.15

Anfang Mai 2012 wurde ich für den Dokumentarfilms "Falscher Klima-Alarm? Skeptiker-Argumente auf dem Prüfstand", interviewt - jetzt wurde mir der Ausstrahlungstermin der Sendung mitgeteilt: Sonntag, 3. Juni, 21.15h - 21.45h, Sendereihe "Faszination Wissen", Bayerisches Fernsehen. Die Sendung ist nach der Erstausstrahlung mehrere Wochen lang online abrufbar auf der Netzseite von "Faszination Wissen".

Oliver Krüger and Frederik Schenk: The Long Run

Oliver Krüger and Frederik Schenk: The Long Run

1 Introduction

Just recently, klimazwiebel released an interview with Reiner Grundmann , in which he reports about his struggles with publishing a somewhat controversial paper. The story we are about to tell and the previous interview fit neatly together.

2 The Story

Half a year ago, we planned to write a comment to Donat et al. (2011) in the Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). Because GRL changed its policies regarding comments to already published manuscripts, we prepared a small paper. In the following peer review process we realized that getting published would eventually become difficult. We received two rounds of reviews with GRL, which finally rejected our manuscript.

Later on we revised the manuscript and submitted to the Environmental Research Letters (ERL), where the manuscript was rejected after one round of reviews. After that incidence, we submitted to one open discussion journal, namely Climate of the Past (CP). CP rejected the manuscript immediately at the initial review stage. The initial review, done by one of the editors, is supposed to be a low standard to enter the open discussion, but we failed nevertheless.

In total we received seven reviews that lead to the rejection in three journals in a row. These seven reviews varied in their opinions significantly. They varied from minor comments to major comments. They were either positively or negatively minded. We also received "interesting" comments. For instance, one reviewer suggested that the average of +1 and -1 is 0.

The editor who did the initial review for CP was more open to questions regarding his rejection. He stated that our results would be plausible, but not convincing (even though he believed our results).

After these episodes, we decided to change our publication strategy. We put the manuscript on arXiv.org to make it publicly available. At the same, we submitted to Journal of Climate, from which we are expecting news whether they are willing to start the review process or not.

3 The Manuscript

The manuscript we are talking about is called "Inconsistencies between long-term trends in storminess derived from the 20CR reanalysis and observations" by Krueger, Schenk, Feser, and Weisse.

 In the letter to the editor we wrote: “In the manuscript we analyze storminess derived through a pressure-based proxy (extreme percentiles of geostrophic wind speed) in the 20th Century Reanalysis dataset 20CR over the Northeast Atlantic and compare our findings with results obtained from pressure observations.”

The method strictly follows Alexandersson et al. (1998, 2000) (their results made it into the last IPCC WG1 report as Fig. 3.41, online at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-3-41.html).

And continuing: “Our findings are based on a relatively simple, yet robust method for analyzing storminess over the large and well studied area of the Northeast Atlantic. The results point to a marked inconsistency between storminess in the reanalysis dataset and storminess derived from observations, which casts doubt on the use of 20CR to describe long term trends, at least in terms of storminess. We believe that changes in the number of stations assimilated into 20CR are a plausible explanation for the discrepancies.

The 20th Century Reanalysis dataset 20CR is a new climate dataset that reaches back to 1871. Because it is nearly 140 years long, scientists hope to use it for long-term trend analyses. With our work, we are assessing how realistically 20CR describes such long-term trends in terms of storminess. We chose to restrict our analyses to the Northeast Atlantic region as this region has been in the focus of several studies in the past that deal with storminess. Ideally, results obtained through 20CR and observations would agree with other, also because the pressure observations analyzed in those past studies have been very likely assimilated into 20CR. Unfortunately, as aforementioned, storminess in 20CR and observed storminess differs significantly.”

The manuscript is available online at http://arxiv.org/abs/1205.5295

4 Remarks

Despite from being rejected by several journals, we are continuing our struggles, because we believe it is worth to do so. We do not know yet how many approaches it will take us. Even though our manuscript seems quite controversial, we are willing to initiate a discussion about the topic if somebody lets us.

References

Alexandersson, H., T. Schmith, K. Iden, and H. Tuomenvirta, 1998: Long-term variations of the storm climate over NW Europe. The Global Atmosphere and Ocean System, 6 (2), 97–120.

Alexandersson, H., H. Tuomenvirta, T. Schmith, and K. Iden, 2000: Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set. Climate Research, 14 (1), 71–73.

Donat, M., D. Renggli, S. Wild, L. Alexander, G. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2011: Reanalysis suggests long-term upward trends in european storminess since 1871. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (14), L14 703.

Interview Reiner Grundmann

1. Reiner, you have published the paper “’Climategate’ and The Scientific Ethos” in Science Technology & Human Values. I understand that this article had a long history of submissions and rejections. Would you mind telling us, what happened, and what you think why this happened?

"Die Leute und die Reduktion des Klimawandels"

Eine Freund schrieb mich an und bat um Rat: "Nun wollen die Leute aber auch gerne wissen, wie sie persönlich zur Reduktion des Klimawandels beitragen können. Kannst Du mir da weiterhelfen - mit ein paar Gedanken?". Meine Antwort dazu, in Kürze und spontan:

Pumping sea-level up

Global sea-level has risen at a pace of about 1.8 mm/year in the period 1960 to 2003. Several factors are contributing to this rise: ocean thermal expansion, glacier melting, and ground water depletion. Which factor has been the strongest contributor ?

From the web-page of reuters an article is available, which discusses the recent strong increase in CO2 emissions, perspectives for the future and ongoing political efforts:

Knowledge Market

When discussing the issue of science-society interaction on climate change, I usually present these theses:

• Science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“. 
• The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated. 
• Scientists have failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”. 
• The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. 
• Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth) advocates to the public has lead to fatigue.
• Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public trust. 

 Examples of other knowledge systems are provided by

• skeptics
• political interests (e.g., deniers, alarmists)
• climatic determinism
• religion

A comment by Alex Harvey: CLIMATE CHANGE ARBITRATION BIAS AT WIKIPEDIA

CLIMATE CHANGE ARBITRATION BIAS AT WIKIPEDIA

by Alex HARVEY h/t GoRight
Recent events in the labyrinthine world of the Wikipedia community have prompted me to speak out about what is happening there.

Many readers will have heard of William Connolley and his Wikipedia activities. If not, I recommend three articles by Lawrence Solomon, namely The Opinionator, Wikipropaganda - spinning green, and Who am I?. Then read on here.

Occupy Climate

Auf spiegel-online ein sehr interessantes Interview mit dem Ethnologen David Graeber, der Occupy Wallstreet Aktivist und Autor u.a. von "Schulden. Die ersten 5000 Jahre" ist und zur Zeit an den Frankfurter Blockupy Protesten teilnimmt. In dem Interview kommt die Sprache auf den Klimawandel und auf die Strategie, was dagegen unternommen werden könnte. Auf den auch auf klimazwiebel immer wieder gerne vorgebrachten Einwand, dass die Leute sich zwar viel über den Klimawandel beklagen, aber nicht bereit sind, dafür Konsequenzen in Kauf zu nehmen, antwortet Graeber:

"Es geht bei Systemumstürzen weniger darum, was die Menschen wollen – sondern was sie für möglich halten. Wir müssen den Horizont der Leute erweitern."

Und auf den Vorwurf der Konzeptlosigkeit der Occupy Bewegung antwortet Graeber:

"Wenn Sie etwas fordern, verlangen Sie von einer höheren Instanz im Staat, es Ihnen zu geben. Damit akzeptieren Sie die Existenz und Funktion dieser Instanz. Genau das tun wir nicht."

Hier die Passagen im Kontext:

"absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"

This one deserves a post of its own: James Hansen's truly apocalyptic vision of current climate; the answer by Martin Hoerling from NOAA, and finally Kerry Emanuel's comment  here on Andrew Revkin's dotearth. In my opinion, Kerry Emanuel's statement demonstrates beautifully that both alarmism and its critics have done their job; now it's time to talk seriously.

(Thanks to Reiner, who posted the link to these articles already here).

North and South contrast

During the last week we have been confronted by two papers published in Nature and Science relating changes in the cryosphere and global sea-level. Their conclusions point to opposite directions and the attention they have found in the media is quite unbalanced.

Roger Pielke jr. über Energiewende und ehrliche Makler

"Prekärer Expertenrat - Was Wissenschaftler in der Klimadebatte leisten können": Tolles Interview auf deutsch mit Roger Pielke jr. auf nzz-online über die Energiewende, den "honest broker" - der hier zum "aufrechten Makler" wird -  und die Rolle von Expertenkommissionen. Der "honest broker" sind viele; der einzelne Experte wird zu sehr von seinen Emotionen und Neigungen geleitet. Der "ehrliche Makler" ist vielmehr als ein Gremium zu verstehen, das mit Experten mit unterschiedlichen Sichtweisen besetzt ist. Das führt zu einem spannenden Gespräch, denn auch Roger, der science & policy Experte, hat durchaus eine Meinung, zum Beispiel zur Energiewende in Deutschland: